Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-India trade deal, which includes India's agreement to halt Russian oil purchases, is met with skepticism regarding its actual implementation, given India's historical ties with Russia and its need for affordable oil. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Deal - President Trump announced a trade deal with India, stating that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela [4] - The U.S. will reduce the main tariff on India from 25% to 18% and remove an additional 25% penalty tariff imposed last summer [6] - Modi confirmed the deal, expressing satisfaction over reduced tariffs for Indian products [7] Group 2: Russia's Response - The Kremlin has not received any official communication from India regarding the cessation of oil purchases, emphasizing the importance of the strategic partnership with India [2] - Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak downplayed the potential loss of Indian custom, stating that energy resources remain in demand [3] Group 3: Skepticism and Analysis - Analysts express doubt that India will completely end Russian oil purchases due to its need for cheap oil and the desire to maintain foreign policy autonomy [7][8] - Evan A. Feigenbaum noted that India is unlikely to make explicit commitments against Russian oil, as it would undermine its defense relationship with Russia [9] - Farwa Aamer highlighted that India will need to balance its relations with both Russia and the U.S. while navigating its oil import structure [10] Group 4: Economic Implications - Moody's Ratings agency indicated that India is unlikely to completely turn away from Russian oil due to potential economic impacts, including increased manufacturing costs and higher consumer prices [11] - A complete shift away from Russian oil could disrupt India's economic growth and lead to tighter supply and higher inflation [12]