Industry Multiple Compression
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Overlooked Stock: OLLI Upgrade & Comparisons to DG
Youtubeยท 2025-12-22 21:40
Core Viewpoint - Ali's Bargain Outlet has seen a rise in stock price following an upgrade from Loop Capital, which has increased its price target from $130 to $135 and upgraded the stock rating from hold to buy, anticipating improved comparable sales through 2026 [5][19]. Company Overview - Ali's Bargain Outlet operates as a wholesale membership retailer similar to Costco, focusing on discounted or overstocked general merchandise, including name-brand items [3][4]. - The company has expanded significantly, now operating over 630 stores across 34 states, and is often compared to TJ Maxx in the general merchandise sector [4]. Market Position and Competition - The upgrade from Loop Capital comes at a time when one of Ali's main competitors, Big Lots, is liquidating, which could benefit Ali's by reducing competition in the broadline retail space [5][6]. - Ali's is making strides into consumables, positioning itself alongside companies like Dollar General and Five Below, which could drive more traffic and improve sales [6][10]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Ali's stock has been trending down, similar to Costco, despite consistent topline sales growth of approximately 12.5% year-over-year and an EBITDA growth of 11.4% last year, with an estimated growth of 15% next year [11][12]. - The current earnings multiple for Ali's is 28 times for this year and 24 times for next year, trading at a discount to its five-year average, indicating potential for a trend reversal [10][12]. Strategic Outlook - The shift towards consumables may initially impact margins but could lead to increased customer traffic and repeat purchases, enhancing overall sales volume [18]. - Ali's net income margins were around 8.9% of sales last year, indicating a more profitable operation compared to Costco, although it lacks the same scale [15][16].