Industry Rotation

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印度量化策略机构所有权趋势——哪些领域拥挤以及机会在哪里?
Bernstein· 2025-05-13 10:55
Ownership Trends - As of March 2025, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) owned 18.1% of BSE 500 stocks, down from a peak of 22% in 2014, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) owned 17.2%, the highest in 18 years[7][11] - In Q1 2025, DIIs increased their ownership in large-caps to 18.2% from 17.8%, mid-caps to 15.2% from 14.9%, and small-caps to 14.1% from 13.4%[8][16] Sector Exposure - FIIs increased exposure to Financials while reducing it in Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Technology[3] - Retail investors increased their ownership in small-caps to 13.6% from 13.4% but reduced it in large-caps to 7.7% from 7.8%[10] Crowding and Alpha Opportunities - Stocks with significant increases in institutional ownership have underperformed the market by -3.5% to -3.8% per annum since 2006, indicating crowding behavior[4][35] - Under-owned stocks have historically generated alpha of 1.2% to 3.6% per annum since 2006, suggesting potential investment opportunities[4][42] Industry Rotation Strategy - A strategy of going long on the three least crowded and short on the three most crowded industries has yielded 5% annualized returns since 2009, with a notable increase to 29% post-COVID[52][56] - In Q1 2025, the crowded industry cohort was down -12.2%, while the market was down -4.6%, highlighting the risks associated with crowded sectors[4][52] Current Market Insights - The least crowded industries currently include Media, Steel, and Energy, while the most crowded are concentrated in Financials, particularly Banking and Asset Management[4][54] - The retail investor class remains the largest in small-caps, owning 13.6% compared to mutual funds at 11.2% and FIIs at 11.4%[10]