Inference Economy
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DigitalOcean(DOCN) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-24 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 18% revenue growth in Q4 2025, reaching $901 million for the full year [4] - Incremental organic ARR was $51 million, the highest in the company's history [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margins were 42% and adjusted free cash flow margins were 19% for the year [4][34] - Q4 revenue was $242 million, up 18% year-over-year, with a gross profit of $142 million and a gross margin of 59% [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARR from Digital Native Enterprises (DNEs) reached $604 million in Q4, growing 30% year-over-year [10] - The million-dollar customers cohort reached $133 million in ARR, growing at 123% year-over-year [10] - The company delivered a record organic incremental ARR of $51 million in Q4, surpassing previous peak quarters [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI customer ARR reached $120 million in Q4 2025, growing 150% year-over-year, now making up 12% of total ARR [28] - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the AI and cloud-native market, with a focus on serving these disruptors [5][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on scaling its top customers and expanding its base of AI-native customers [45] - It aims to deliver 21% revenue growth in 2026, with an exit growth rate of 25%+ in Q4 2026, and 30% growth in 2027 [7][30] - The strategy includes building a vertically integrated inference cloud to support AI-native companies [16][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on the AI-driven disruption in the software industry [5][48] - The company anticipates near-term pressure on gross margin and adjusted EBITDA due to new capacity investments but remains committed to maintaining financial discipline [31][41] - Management highlighted the importance of balancing growth with disciplined capital allocation [31][45] Other Important Information - The company introduced a new metric, AI customer revenue, to provide clearer visibility into its momentum [27] - The company has strengthened its executive team by adding a Chief Product and Technology Officer to enhance its capabilities [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the inference market and customer evolution - Management noted that while major players like OpenAI and Anthropic dominate headlines, there is a growing importance of open-source models for managing unit economics [52][53] - The company is seeing a healthy adoption of open-source models among its AI-native customers, which is expected to grow [55][56] Question: Clarification on the weighted rule of fifty and free cash flow margins - Management explained that the weighted rule of fifty considers revenue growth as three times more valuable than free cash flow margin, indicating strong growth potential alongside disciplined financial management [57][58] Question: Operational support for open-source models - Management confirmed that they are extending day zero support for open-source models, with automation expected to increase in the future [63] - The company is working on intelligent routing algorithms to optimize the use of both open-source and closed-source models [65][66] Question: Revenue efficiency for fully utilized megawatts - Management indicated that they expect to deliver materially higher ARR per megawatt compared to competitors, with a focus on integrating AI and core cloud capabilities [68][70] Question: Incremental capacity and revenue growth projections - Management confirmed that the incremental 31 megawatts of capacity will come online by the end of 2026, supporting a projected exit growth rate of 25%+ in Q4 2026 and 30% growth in 2027 [73]