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AU vs. NEM: Which Gold Mining Stock Is the Better Buy Right Now?
ZACKS· 2025-12-24 19:06
Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) are both major gold producers benefiting from rising gold prices, which are currently around $4,500 per ounce, reflecting a 70.6% increase over the past year [2][19]. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) - AU has a diversified portfolio with operations in multiple countries, including South Africa, Argentina, and Ghana, and has made significant acquisitions, including Augusta Gold Corp and Centamin, enhancing its production capabilities [3][4]. - The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in gold production to 768,000 ounces in Q3 2025, with gold revenues rising 61.9% to $2.37 billion [5]. - Projected gold production for 2025 is between 2.9 million and 3.225 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21% [6]. - Despite facing higher operating costs, AU generated a record $920 million in free cash flow in Q3, a 141% increase year-over-year, and ended the quarter with $3.9 billion in liquidity [8]. - The company is focused on its Full Asset Potential program to mitigate inflationary impacts and streamline operations, particularly in the U.S. [9]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - NEM is one of the largest gold producers globally, with operations in Nevada, Peru, and Ghana, and has recently achieved commercial production at the Ahafo North project, expected to produce 275,000 to 325,000 ounces annually [12]. - The company produced 1.42 million ounces of gold in Q3 2025, a 15% decrease year-over-year due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns [14]. - NEM anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at 5.9 million ounces, down from 6.85 million ounces in 2024 [15]. - The company generated a record free cash flow of $1.6 billion in Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in free cash flow [15]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU's 2025 earnings is $5.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 149.3% [16]. - For NEM, the earnings estimate for 2025 is $6.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 74.1% [18]. Price Performance & Valuation - Over the past year, AU's stock has increased by 297.3%, while NEM's stock has risen by 179.4% [19]. - AU is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.54X, while NEM is at 14.94X [20]. Investment Consideration - Both AU and NEM are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing gold price rally, but AU has shown stronger price performance and a more attractive valuation, making it a more compelling investment choice at this time [23][24].