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Here's Why Hold Strategy Is Apt for Pembina Pipeline Stock for Now
ZACKSยท 2025-10-13 13:41
Core Insights - Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) has outperformed the broader Oil & Gas Production and Pipelines sub-industry and the overall Oil-Energy sector, with a share price increase of 4.5% over the past three months compared to a 1.6% rise for its sub-industry and a 1.3% decline for the sector [1][5] Stock Performance Overview - PBA's stock has shown resilience in a volatile energy sector, indicating stronger investor confidence [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBA's earnings per share (EPS) for the next fiscal year remains steady at $2.19, while the estimate for the fiscal year after has slightly decreased by 1.29% from $2.33 to $2.30 [3][6] Competitive Advantages - PBA is the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with a fully integrated value chain across all commodities, providing significant competitive advantages [6] - The company has a proven track record of executing major capital projects on time and under budget, enhancing returns and delivering expansions at a cost-per-barrel basis that is 15-20% lower than competitors [7] - PBA is advancing over C$1 billion in fully-supported pipeline expansions, secured by long-term contracts, which provides a visible pipeline of future fee-based earnings [8] - The weighted average contract life on PBA's pipeline systems is approximately seven and a half years, demonstrating the company's ability to extend contracts and ensure a strong base of committed volumes [9] Recent Financial Performance - PBA's second-quarter 2025 results showed declines in key financial metrics, with adjusted EBITDA falling 7% to C$1.01 billion, earnings decreasing 13% to C$417 million, and adjusted cash flow from operating activities dropping 17% to C$698 million [10] - The Marketing & New Ventures division experienced a dramatic 48% decrease in adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to lower NGL margins and prices, indicating exposure to volatile commodity-based earnings [11] Market Challenges - Increasing customer consolidation in Western Canada may pressure toll rates and market share, as larger producers negotiate more aggressively on transportation and processing costs [12] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with risks from other midstream players and the potential for producers to bring midstream activities in-house, making market share gains more challenging [13] Conclusion - PBA's fully integrated value chain and strong project execution provide competitive advantages, while over C$1 billion in secured pipeline projects and long-term contract extensions offer visibility into future earnings [14] - However, recent financial results indicate year-over-year declines, and the company faces challenges from volatile earnings and increasing competition [15]