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Hawkish Risks Are Mounting: 3-Minute MLIV
Youtube· 2025-12-09 14:00
Inflation Concerns - Global inflation concerns are being highlighted by various central banks, including the ECB, Japan, and the RBA, indicating a widespread issue [1] - There is a growing concern about inflation in the US, particularly as the market anticipates a hiking cycle following the current cutting cycle [3][4] Market Behavior - The market typically begins to price in a hiking cycle before the end of the cutting cycle, reflecting normal market behavior [2] - Higher yields are expected as inflationary pressures build, especially in the US, leading to potential upward pressure on yields [5][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's stance, with expectations of dissent among members, indicating a range of views on economic conditions [6][7] - The presence of dissent at the Fed is seen as a positive signal for its independence, suggesting increased volatility in monetary policy decisions [10][11] Volatility and Market Reactions - The market's reaction to Fed meetings has shown that initial dovish sentiments can shift to a more hawkish outlook as the meeting progresses, impacting the dollar's value [8] - Increased dissent among Fed members may lead to greater market volatility as individual views on economic data come into play [11][10]