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Aramark (ARMK): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-09-16 18:03
Core Thesis - Aramark (ARMK) is viewed positively due to its quality contract catering business, improving fundamentals, and attractive growth potential, trading at a reasonable multiple compared to peers [2][5] Company Overview - Aramark operates in 15 countries, with approximately 75% of its revenue generated in the U.S., holding the 2 market share domestically and 3 in most international markets [2] - Following the spin-off of Vestis Corp in September 2023, Aramark is now a pure-play contract catering company, with 84% of revenue from food service and the remainder from support services [2] Business Model - The business model benefits from recurring, predictable revenue, high cash conversion, limited working capital requirements, and modest capital expenditures of 3-4% of revenue [3] - Contracts generally extend beyond one year, with two-thirds being performance-based P&L agreements, allowing for margin improvements [3] Financial Performance - Recent management efforts under CEO John Zillmer have focused on automation, supply chain, and operational efficiencies, leading to strong execution and record base business volumes [4] - Q2 and Q3 performance indicated robust profitability, with guidance suggesting full-year organic growth of 5.5-7.5%, and Q4 expected to exceed 8% [4] Growth Potential - The company has the potential for mid- to high-single-digit organic revenue growth and over 10% EPS growth, trading at approximately 18x earnings [5] - If business quality continues to improve, ARMK could re-rate closer to peer CPG's ~25x, presenting a compelling risk/reward profile for investors [5] Competitive Landscape - The current thesis contrasts with a bearish view on Restaurant Brands International (QSR), highlighting Aramark's stronger fundamentals and recurring revenue base [6]