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The "China Hedge": Why Lululemon Surged 10% Despite A U.S. Slowdown
Forbesยท 2025-12-15 10:30
Core Insights - The primary concern surrounding Lululemon stock has been whether the athleisure boom is ending, with competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori gaining market share [2] - Despite a 3% decrease in U.S. revenue and the resignation of CEO Calvin McDonald, Lululemon shares rose 10% in after-hours trading, indicating a shift in market perception [3] - The Q3 earnings report revealed that Lululemon has decoupled its success from the U.S. consumer, showing strong international growth that offsets domestic weaknesses [4] Financial Performance - The Americas division faced a 3% decline, while international revenue surged by 35%, particularly driven by growth in Mainland China [10] - Lululemon reported an EPS of $2.59, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.22, demonstrating profitability despite challenges in the U.S. market [10] - The stock was trading at around 15x forward earnings prior to the report, reflecting concerns of a potential earnings collapse [8] Market Reaction - The 10% stock increase is characterized as a "Relief Rally," as investors reassess the company's valuation from a "Declining Retailer" multiple to a "Global Brand" multiple [10] - The resignation of the CEO is viewed as an opportunity for a strategic reset in the U.S. market, potentially leading to product innovation [10] - Despite U.S. sales declines, gross margins remained strong, indicating the company's pricing power and financial prudence [10] Strategic Focus - Lululemon is shifting its focus back to "Technical Performance" rather than competing in the fashion-oriented segments dominated by competitors [14] - Growth in the men's category and technical product lines has outperformed the women's leggings segment, reinforcing the company's strengths [14] - The international growth engine, particularly in China, continues to show promise, with over 30% growth expected [14]