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Geopolitical Risks & Oil Prices - The market is not significantly reacting to US-Venezuela tensions, with some speculating that a regime change could increase Venezuelan oil supply [1][2] - Industry observers are closely monitoring potential Israeli strikes on Iran and the residual Iranian nuclear capacity, despite the US seeming content to stand down after the 12-day war [6][7][8] - Escalation in the Middle East, such as Israeli strikes on Hamas negotiators in Doha, suggests Israel's continued security interests in the region and potential renewed focus on Iran [8] Market Dynamics & Supply - Some market participants anticipate a significant oversupply in Q4, contributing to a bearish outlook [11][12] - Continued buying for the Chinese strategic petroleum reserve and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are supporting oil prices [12] - Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and pipelines are targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, potentially leading to shut-ins of Russian production due to limited storage capabilities [13][14] Venezuela's Oil Industry - Restructuring and returning Venezuela's oil exports to previous levels will be a multi-year, expensive process, complicated by Chinese and Russian interests [4] - Venezuela's exports have rebounded slightly, but are still millions of barrels below previous levels from decades ago [4]