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BARCLAYS-从库存会计角度看关税引发的通胀对盈利能力的初步影响
2025-04-23 10:46
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Capital Goods** sector, analyzing the impact of tariff-led inflation on profitability from an inventory accounting perspective [1][4][35]. Core Insights - **Inventory Accounting Methods**: - Three primary methodologies are discussed: - **FIFO (First In, First Out)**: Oldest inventory sold first, inflating margins during price increases. - **WAC (Weighted Average Cost)**: Average cost assigned, revealing cost inflation impact more rapidly. - **LIFO (Last In, First Out)**: Not permitted under IFRS for inventory valuation [2][3]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: - Companies using FIFO will report lower costs and higher income, thus inflating profitability compared to those using WAC [2][3]. - Companies identified as adopting FIFO include **ABB** and **Signify**, while those using WAC include **Andritz**, **KION**, **Electrolux**, and **Siemens** [1][3]. - **Inventory-to-Sales Ratio**: - The sector median inventory-to-sales ratio is **16.6%**. Companies with FIFO accounting and an inventory-to-sales ratio above this median may experience a delayed impact from tariffs [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **ABB** and **Signify**: - Both companies adopt FIFO accounting and have an inventory-to-sales ratio above the sector median, indicating a potential delay in the impact of tariffs on their margins [3]. - **Andritz**, **KION**, **Electrolux**, and **Siemens**: - These companies adopt WAC accounting and have an inventory-to-sales ratio below the sector median, suggesting they may see the tariff impact more quickly [3]. Additional Considerations - **Market Ratings**: - The report includes ratings for various companies within the sector, with ABB, Andritz, Electrolux, KION, Siemens, and Signify all rated as **Underweight/Neutral** [18]. - **Tariff Risk Assessment**: - Companies are assessed for tariff risk, categorized as material, manageable, or limited, which may influence investment decisions [9]. - **Analyst Contact Information**: - Analysts from Barclays are available for further inquiries, indicating a structured approach to investor relations [4][5]. Conclusion - The analysis highlights the significant impact of inventory accounting methods on profitability in the European Capital Goods sector, particularly in the context of tariff-led inflation. Companies adopting FIFO may benefit from inflated margins, while those using WAC may face quicker impacts from cost inflation. The report serves as a critical resource for investors assessing potential risks and opportunities within this sector.