Investment Banking Rebound
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Goldman vs. Evercore: Which Investment Banking Stock to Bet On?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-29 15:56
Core Insights - The investment banking industry is experiencing a rebound, with Evercore Inc. (EVR) and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) gaining investor attention due to their services in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital markets, and wealth management [1] Group 1: Market Context - The year 2025 began positively, driven by expectations of a business-friendly Trump administration and potential deregulation, although proposed tariffs initially caused market volatility [2] - Deal-making activities have shown promise due to clarity on taxes, tariffs, deregulation, and corporates' pursuit of scale and competitiveness [2] Group 2: Goldman Sachs (GS) Overview - Goldman Sachs maintains a leadership position in global banking and markets, with investment banking revenues increasing by 24% year-over-year to $7.73 billion in 2024, continuing into the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The company is focusing on core businesses, retreating from underperforming consumer banking ventures, and exploring acquisitions to expand its asset and wealth management (AWM) footprint [5][6] - Goldman is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and 6.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings increasing by 15.1% and 14% in the same years [18] Group 3: Evercore (EVR) Overview - Evercore generates 94% of its revenues from Investment Banking and Equities, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% from 2017 to 2024, continuing into 2025 [7] - The company is actively increasing its staff to strengthen its investment banking footprint, with a focus on boosting its client base and diversifying revenue sources [8] - Evercore's revenue growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 are 17.4% and 25.4%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 34.5% and 76.9% [20] Group 4: Comparative Performance - Over the past six months, Evercore's shares surged by 72%, outperforming Goldman Sachs' 46.7% increase and the industry's 31.8% growth [10][11] - In terms of valuation, Goldman is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.6X, while Evercore's is at 17.2X, indicating that Goldman is relatively less expensive [13][15] - Both companies pay dividends, with Goldman offering a yield of 1.99% compared to Evercore's 0.98%, giving Goldman an edge in dividend payout [15] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Evercore is positioned as a compelling upside play due to its pure-play advisory focus, aggressive hiring, and impressive growth trajectory, especially if M&A activity strengthens [23] - Despite a premium valuation and lower dividend yield, Evercore's superior growth potential justifies its valuation compared to Goldman [24] - Evercore holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while Goldman has a 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger investment case for Evercore in the current market environment [25]