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20VC x SaaStr Is Back!!: Nvidia’s $20B Groq Grab, Meta’s $2.5B Manus Play, and Why “Invisible Unemployment” Will Define 2026
SaaStr· 2026-01-08 17:21
Group 1 - Nvidia's $20 billion acquisition of Groq is viewed as a defensive move to eliminate margin pressure rather than a growth strategy, as it represents less than 1% of Nvidia's market cap and less than 20% of its annual free cash flow [3][22] - Meta's acquisition of Manus for $2.5 billion at a valuation of 25 times ARR is characterized as a "local maximum" deal, with founders cashing out significantly while the company was experiencing rapid growth [5][6] - The trend of "spite startups" is emerging, where founders are motivated by competitive tensions and past grievances, driving innovation in the AI sector [7][20] Group 2 - OpenAI's compensation structure, with an average of $1.5 million per employee, is deemed necessary to attract and retain top talent in a highly competitive market, despite being significantly higher than pre-IPO tech companies [8][10] - SoftBank's $40 billion investment in OpenAI is highlighted as a potentially transformative deal, with the investment already showing substantial paper gains shortly after closing [10] - The IPO market is currently challenging, as evidenced by Navan's public offering at a low multiple despite positive growth, indicating that many companies may prefer to remain private [14][15] Group 3 - The concept of "invisible unemployment" is introduced, suggesting a significant shift in the labor market that will not be reflected in official statistics, particularly affecting entry-level knowledge workers [16][21] - Companies are increasingly able to achieve high revenue per employee without expanding headcount, leading to a tighter job market for less skilled workers [16][19] - The best companies are choosing to stay private, as they can generate substantial profits without the need for public market funding, raising questions about the attractiveness of public offerings [17][18]