Core Viewpoint - Traders are skeptical about Japan's new government's ability to stabilize the yen through direct intervention as the currency approaches levels that previously prompted market actions [1][2]. Group 1: Government Intervention - Unlike last year, the current intervention would occur as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signals a desire for a slowdown in interest rate hikes, which contrasts with previous interventions that were in anticipation of higher rates [1][3]. - Any intervention risks depleting Japan's foreign exchange reserves, which are necessary for funding a US investment package aimed at appeasing President Donald Trump [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The yen has depreciated approximately 4.5% against the dollar this quarter, marking the most significant decline among its Group of 10 peers, with a low of 155.04 during the US session on Wednesday and trading around 154.96 in Tokyo [3]. - The Ministry of Finance intervened last year when the yen fell to about 160.17, with additional interventions at levels around 157.99, 161.76, and 159.45, indicating a focus on volatility rather than specific exchange levels [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concerns about one-sided and rapid currency moves, acknowledging the negative aspects of a weak yen [4]. - If the fear of intervention fails to prevent the yen from breaking below 155 per US dollar, the likelihood of intervention is expected to increase [6]. - There is no strict definition of overly sharp moves, but a previous indication suggested that a 10-yen move against the dollar over a month or a 4% move in two weeks would be considered rapid [7].