Economic Overview - The UK's jobs market is showing signs of weakness, with average regular earnings excluding bonuses rising by only 4.8% in July, the slowest pace since June 2022 [2][74] - The number of job vacancies has fallen for the 38th consecutive month, dropping to 728,000 in the three months to August from a peak of 1.3 million in 2022 [2][67][42] - Payroll employment has decreased by 153,000 since October last year, with a decline of 8,000 in August alone, indicating a trend of shrinking workforce [3][70] Impact of Government Policies - The decline in job numbers is attributed to the tax increases implemented by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which included a £40 billion tax hike and increased National Insurance Contributions [5][6][70] - The retail sector has been particularly hard hit, with jobs in retail falling to a record low of 2.78 million, down by 97,000 from the previous year [53][54] - The Employment Rights Bill and rising costs are seen as significant barriers to hiring, with 45% of business leaders citing employment regulation as a major obstacle to growth [38][36] Youth Employment Challenges - Young people have been disproportionately affected, with 51,000 fewer under-25s in payrolled work since April, largely due to rising employment costs and increased competition from lower-skilled migration [5][14] - The number of under-30s on out-of-work benefits has risen by 66,000 since the General Election, highlighting the challenges faced by this demographic in securing employment [5][13] Future Economic Outlook - Economists predict that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at 4% for the remainder of the year, as wage growth remains above inflation, which was recorded at 3.8% in July [9][60][71] - The overall economic environment suggests that the UK may face further turbulence, with the unemployment rate potentially exceeding 5% in the coming months due to rising costs and weakening demand [68][69]