Kernel Density Estimation (KDE)
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The Saturday Spread: Using Data Science to Pick Out the Most Compelling Discounts (NVO, SOFI, FAST)
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-22 15:15
Novo Nordisk (NVO) - NVO stock has declined nearly 45% year-to-date, leading to discussions about potential mispricing or undervaluation [1] - The analysis of NVO's valuation is heavily dependent on assumptions regarding earnings trajectory, cash flows, and weighted average cost of capital [1][8] - A bespoke algorithm using a KM-KDE framework suggests that the forward 10-week returns for NVO stock could range between $47.40 and $49, with price clustering likely at $48.35 [10] - The current price structure of NVO is in a 3-7-D formation, indicating three up weeks and seven down weeks, with expected price clustering at $50.50 [11] SoFi Technologies (SOFI) - SOFI shares have increased approximately 64% year-to-date, but recent performance has been poor, with a 7% dip in the last month and a 9% loss in the past week [13] - The forward 10-week median returns for SOFI stock are projected to be between $23 and $26.50, with price clustering expected at $24.80 [14] - The current 3-7-D formation for SOFI indicates potential forward returns between $24.50 and $27.70, with price clustering likely at $26 [15] - A 25/26 bull spread expiring January 16 is suggested, offering a maximum payout of 92.31% if the second-leg strike is triggered [16] Fastenal (FAST) - FAST stock has gained nearly 11% since the beginning of the year, but has seen a decline of over 6% in the last month and nearly 21% since early September [18] - The forward 10-week median returns for FAST stock are expected to range between $39.30 and $41.50, with price clustering likely at approximately $40.75 [19] - The current 3-7-D formation for FAST suggests forward returns between $39 and $44, with price clustering expected at $41.85 [20] - An aggressive trading strategy could involve a 40.00/42.50 bull spread expiring December 19, with a breakeven price of $40.95 [21]