US job openings dropped to the lowest level in more than five years in December and data for the prior month was revised lower amid a softening in labor market conditions at the end of 2025.Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased by 386,000 to 6.542m by the last day of December, the lowest level since September 2020, the labor department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts report, on Thursday.Data for November was revised down to show 6.928m j ...

Summary of FOMC September Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its discussions regarding monetary policy in the United States. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Easing** - Most FOMC participants indicated that further easing of monetary policy would likely be appropriate for the remainder of the year [2][1]. - Some participants suggested that the current easy financial conditions warranted a cautious approach to future policy changes [2][1]. - While almost all supported a 25 basis point cut in September, a few advocated for maintaining the federal funds rate unchanged, and one participant preferred a 50 basis point cut [2][1]. 2. **Labor Market Indicators** - Participants noted that various labor market indicators, including the unemployment rate and job openings, did not show a sharp deterioration [3][1]. - However, some data suggested that labor market conditions had been softening longer than previously reported, increasing downside risks to employment [3][1]. - Specific groups, such as Black and young workers, showed more sensitivity to cyclical changes, indicating heightened risks [3][1]. 3. **Inflation Outlook** - A majority of participants viewed risks to inflation as skewed to the upside, influenced by recent inflation data moving further from the 2% target [4][1]. - Concerns included the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential for more persistent inflation [4][1]. - Some participants noted that strong productivity growth could exert downward pressure on inflation [7][1]. 4. **Economic Growth and Unemployment Forecast** - The Fed staff revised its forecast for real GDP growth upward for 2025 to 2028, citing stronger consumer spending and capital expenditure data [8][1]. - The unemployment rate forecast was slightly lowered, but an increase above the natural rate of unemployment was still expected before a decline later in the projection period [8][1]. - Risks to inflation were seen as skewed to the upside, while risks to employment were viewed as skewed to the downside [8][1]. 5. **Monitoring Money Market Conditions** - A few participants emphasized the importance of closely monitoring money market conditions and evaluating reserve levels as the Fed's balance sheet runoff continued [9][1]. - The deputy manager of the System Open Market Account projected reserves to be around $2.8 trillion by the end of the first quarter of the following year, aligning with estimates of an ample reserve level around $2.7 trillion [9][1]. Additional Important Content - The document includes contact information for various analysts at Goldman Sachs, indicating the report's origin and the analysts' roles [4][1]. - It emphasizes that the report should be considered as one factor in investment decisions and includes disclaimers regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information provided [21][1]. - The report also outlines regulatory disclosures and compliance information relevant to the research conducted by Goldman Sachs [12][1][19][1].

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns do not have a significant economic impact, particularly if they are short in duration [1] - Typically, economic activity may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% per week during a shutdown, but this is usually recovered once the government reopens [2] - Recent shutdowns have seen the S&P 500 remain flat or even increase, indicating investor resilience [2] Labor Market Observations - The current labor market is experiencing a slowdown in job demand, with no significant increase in layoffs, leading to a stagnating job market [4] - Potential furloughs could escalate into layoffs, which may negatively affect an already soft labor market [3] Consumer Discretionary Sector Insights - The consumer discretionary sector presents various opportunities despite the tightening job market, as it is a differentiated sector [4] - The bottom quintile of consumers is facing cash and debt challenges, while the majority of the consumer cohort remains stable [4] - This stability in the broader consumer base supports ongoing investment opportunities within the consumer discretionary sector [4]