Summary of FOMC September Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its discussions regarding monetary policy in the United States. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Easing** - Most FOMC participants indicated that further easing of monetary policy would likely be appropriate for the remainder of the year [2][1]. - Some participants suggested that the current easy financial conditions warranted a cautious approach to future policy changes [2][1]. - While almost all supported a 25 basis point cut in September, a few advocated for maintaining the federal funds rate unchanged, and one participant preferred a 50 basis point cut [2][1]. 2. **Labor Market Indicators** - Participants noted that various labor market indicators, including the unemployment rate and job openings, did not show a sharp deterioration [3][1]. - However, some data suggested that labor market conditions had been softening longer than previously reported, increasing downside risks to employment [3][1]. - Specific groups, such as Black and young workers, showed more sensitivity to cyclical changes, indicating heightened risks [3][1]. 3. **Inflation Outlook** - A majority of participants viewed risks to inflation as skewed to the upside, influenced by recent inflation data moving further from the 2% target [4][1]. - Concerns included the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential for more persistent inflation [4][1]. - Some participants noted that strong productivity growth could exert downward pressure on inflation [7][1]. 4. **Economic Growth and Unemployment Forecast** - The Fed staff revised its forecast for real GDP growth upward for 2025 to 2028, citing stronger consumer spending and capital expenditure data [8][1]. - The unemployment rate forecast was slightly lowered, but an increase above the natural rate of unemployment was still expected before a decline later in the projection period [8][1]. - Risks to inflation were seen as skewed to the upside, while risks to employment were viewed as skewed to the downside [8][1]. 5. **Monitoring Money Market Conditions** - A few participants emphasized the importance of closely monitoring money market conditions and evaluating reserve levels as the Fed's balance sheet runoff continued [9][1]. - The deputy manager of the System Open Market Account projected reserves to be around $2.8 trillion by the end of the first quarter of the following year, aligning with estimates of an ample reserve level around $2.7 trillion [9][1]. Additional Important Content - The document includes contact information for various analysts at Goldman Sachs, indicating the report's origin and the analysts' roles [4][1]. - It emphasizes that the report should be considered as one factor in investment decisions and includes disclaimers regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information provided [21][1]. - The report also outlines regulatory disclosures and compliance information relevant to the research conducted by Goldman Sachs [12][1][19][1].

Let's bring in Wilmington Trust Megan Shu. Megan, good to talk to you. It seems as though investors are just really shrugging off any impact from the government shutdown here.Yeah, Contessa, I think that's right. And it jives with what we've seen historically. Uh historically, shutdowns don't have a material economic impact, especially if they stay short enough in duration.you tend to get uh basically a a tenth to two tenths per week for every week that the government shut down, but then you get that made b ...