The Sahm rule is a measure of labor market deterioration, and it has historically been an accurate recession indicator.The labor market is one of the strongest indicators of overall economic health. When companies are hiring and workers feel secure in their jobs, they both tend to spend more and drive up demand for goods and services. When businesses dial back on hiring plans or lay people off, consumers tend to spend cautiously.Today, the U.S. labor market is at a bit of a middle ground. The unemployment r ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed fluctuations following Friday's market advance, with major benchmark indices experiencing varied changes [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.16%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58%, indicating investor sentiment towards interest rates [2] Stocks in Focus - Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) saw an 8.81% increase after its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, reflecting a strong price trend despite a poor value ranking [6] - Confluent Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) surged by 31.59% amid reports of IBM nearing a $11 billion acquisition of the data software company, maintaining a stronger price trend in the short and medium terms [6] - Phreesia Inc. (NYSE:PHR) rose by 1.95% ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of 2 cents per share on revenue of $120.05 million [5] - Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) increased by 0.55%, with expectations of quarterly earnings at $4.89 per share on revenue of $3.30 billion [5] Economic Insights - Analysts highlight a contrast in the U.S. economy, noting robust consumer behavior against a deteriorating labor market, which could impact future market performance [11] - Mohamed El-Erian emphasizes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as a key market driver, with a 25 basis point cut in December appearing likely [12] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are focused on upcoming economic data releases, including the NFIB optimism index and the FOMC's interest rate decision, which could influence market dynamics [15]