Macro Economic Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached 4% first, briefly dipping below 4% to a 52-week low of 3.88% in April before fluctuating around 4.15% later in the year [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with a lack of consensus among committee members regarding the number of necessary cuts [4] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market has weakened significantly, with job additions dropping from over 100,000 per month in early 2025 to an average of 17,000 from June to November, including negative job growth in June, August, and October [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4% in January to 4.6% in November, indicating a deterioration in labor market conditions [5][6] Stock Market Performance - The NASDAQ indices rose over 21% for the year, with the S&P 500 up nearly 17% and the Dow up 14%, reflecting a positive impact from the Trump administration despite initial market pullbacks due to tariff concerns [7][8] - The market rebounded quickly after the president postponed most tariffs, leading to a gradual rise throughout the year [8][10] Corporate Earnings Outlook - Initial expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth were around 12% for 2025, but the final tally for 2024 earnings is projected to be slightly lower at 10% [12][13] - Earnings expectations for 2025 have improved, now projected to be nearly 14% growth, surpassing earlier estimates [16][17] - The overall earnings growth outlook has gradually improved over the past year, which is crucial for sustaining market gains [18]