Economic Overview - The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, surpassing economists' estimates [1] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, higher than expected [1] Job Market Adjustments - Job gains for July and August were revised down, with July's figures adjusted from 79,000 to 72,000, and August's from a gain of 22,000 to a loss of 4,000, totaling a downward revision of 33,000 jobs [3] Sector Performance - Private payrolls added 97,000 jobs in September, exceeding the estimate of 62,000 [4] - Government payrolls increased by 22,000 jobs in September, following a decline of the same amount in August [4] - The manufacturing sector experienced a loss of 6,000 jobs in September, which was less than the estimated loss of 8,000 jobs [5] - Overall, the manufacturing sector is down 94,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous year [5] Federal Employment Trends - Federal employment has decreased by 97,000 jobs since reaching a peak in January [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. private payrolls experienced a significant decline of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest drop since March 2023, contrary to economists' expectations of a 45,000 job increase [2][4] - The report highlights a broader trend of labor market weakening, compounded by the ongoing government shutdown, which has led to a data blackout affecting key employment reports [3][4] Employment Trends - Job losses were widespread across various sectors, with notable declines in leisure and hospitality (19,000 jobs lost), other services (16,000), professional and business services (13,000), trade, transportation, and utilities (7,000), and construction (5,000) [5][6] - In contrast, education and health services saw an increase of 33,000 jobs, attributed to the reopening of schools and ongoing healthcare hiring [5] Business Size Impact - Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs, while larger companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs, indicating a disparity in hiring trends based on company size [6] Economic Context - Despite a robust economic growth rate of 3.8% in Q2 and an expected 3.9% in Q3, concerns about the labor market persist, with the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4.3% [7] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring payroll data for interest rate decisions, with the next meeting scheduled for October 28-29, making the ADP report particularly significant in the absence of government data [4][8] Wage Growth - Wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year in September, remaining stable compared to August, although the rate of increase for job changers decreased to 6.6%, down half a percentage point from the previous month [9]