Core Viewpoint - The notion that Layer 1 (L1) blockspace has become a commodity is considered premature, as institutional behavior indicates a different reality [1]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Capital Distribution - Institutional capital is concentrated on top-tier chains like Ethereum and Solana, rather than being evenly distributed across all chains, suggesting that L1 blockspace is not yet commoditized [2]. - There is virtually no interest in building on lower-tier L1s, highlighting the dominance of a few leading networks [2]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Ethereum and Solana continue to lead in mindshare, liquidity, and developer activity, despite competition from newer L1s that are aggressive on fees and throughput [3]. - The current low-fee environment is attributed to top-tier L1s having built more bandwidth than the market currently requires, resulting in minimal fees [3]. - There is uncertainty about how long this equilibrium will last, especially as demand scales with the growth of stablecoins, tokenization, and DeFi [3][4]. Group 3: Future Implications - The potential expansion of blockchain-based financial infrastructure to support trillions in tokenized assets could lead to a tightening of today's excess capacity, reshaping the economics of leading networks [4]. Group 4: Prediction Markets and Regulation - Prediction markets are viewed as a modern extension of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), leveling the playing field for all investors [5]. - These markets publicly price probabilities around significant events, contrasting with historical practices where hedge funds gained an advantage through private intelligence [6]. - Retail investors can now access live probabilities on platforms like Polymarket, enhancing transparency in legislative processes [6].