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Enphase: Shifting Solar Gears As Tax Credits Drive Lease-First Future
Benzingaยท 2025-07-23 23:08
Core Insights - Enphase Energy is adapting to changes in the solar energy market driven by evolving incentive structures, particularly the 48E tax credit, which is set to last until 2027 [1][2] - The company anticipates a significant decline in traditional cash and loan sales, projecting a drop from approximately 2.5GW in 2025 to just 1GW in 2026, with leasing and power purchase agreements (PPAs) becoming the primary sales channels [2] - Enphase's CEO expects the total addressable market (TAM) to decrease by 20% in 2026 due to the expiration of the 25D tax credit [2] Company Strategies - Enphase plans to implement three key initiatives to mitigate the anticipated market reduction without leveraging its balance sheet [3] - Expanding lease financing through third-party owner (TPO) partnerships [5] - Driving down installation costs, particularly for batteries [5] - Lowering customer acquisition costs using advanced lead-generation platforms [5] Market Outlook - The U.S. solar market is showing signs of improvement, with increasing battery attach rates and seasonal demand contributing to positive momentum [4] - The company expects a surge in orders later this year as consumers aim to secure the 25D homeowner tax credit before its expiration [3]