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Pampa Energia(PAM) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-05 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 amounted to $322 million, representing a 16% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by Rincon de Aranda, steady shale oil growth, higher B2B sales, and contributions from the PP6 wind farm [3][9] - Capex surged 183% year-on-year to $332 million, with $170 million allocated to the development of Rincon de Aranda [3][10] - Gross debt decreased by 16% since December 2024, reaching nearly $1.8 billion, while net debt rose to $874 million, reflecting a net leverage ratio of 1.3 times [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil and gas adjusted EBITDA was $171 million in Q3, a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by Rincon de Aranda, increased exports, and strong industrial demand [4][5] - Total production averaged nearly 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 14% increase year-on-year, led by Rincon de Aranda and Sierra Chata [5][6] - Gas sales remained steady year-on-year at 14 million cubic meters per day, with an 8% increase from Q2, primarily due to seasonality [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil prices averaged $61 per barrel in Q3, a 15% decrease from the previous year, but hedging helped mitigate the price drop [5][6] - Gas prices averaged $4.4 per million Btu, remaining flat year-on-year, supported by fuel cell procurement for the Loma Lata Power Plant [8][9] - Exports increased by 146% year-on-year to 1.2 million cubic meters per day, driven by low hydro conditions and increased demand from Chile [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to ramp up production at Rincon de Aranda to 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of 2025, with a target of 45,000 barrels per day by 2027 [6][7] - The strategy includes leveraging idle capacity and installing additional temporary facilities to support growth [6][7] - The company aims to stabilize lifting costs at $5 per barrel, aligning with industry peers, with the central processing facility playing a crucial role [7][8] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's fundamentals, demonstrated by a share repurchase of 1.5% of the company's share capital [2][3] - The outlook for Q4 2025 anticipates oil production between 18,000 and 19,000 barrels per day, primarily driven by Rincon de Aranda [12][13] - Management expects a 10-15% improvement in EBITDA for the generation segment in 2026 due to new regulatory frameworks [34][35] Other Important Information - The company generated $6 million in free cash flow in Q3, marking the peak in EBITDA and sales for the year [10][11] - The company is actively managing its debt profile, extending the average life to 5.6 years and reducing near-term maturities [11][12] - The company is exploring opportunities in the LNG market, with expected incremental EBITDA of around $140 million per year once fully operational [103][104] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected total oil production evolution in Q4? - Management expects total oil production to be between 18,000 and 19,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025 [12][13] Question: How do you expect lifting costs to evolve during 2026? - Lifting costs for oil are expected to decrease from $10 to around $9.19 per barrel, driving overall lifting costs down to approximately $6.2 per barrel equivalent [19][20] Question: What is the outlook for the gas market during the summer season? - The company has a take-or-pay clause in contracts that aligns with real demand, and associated gas will influence the spot market [23][24] Question: What are the expectations for EBITDA in the generation segment considering new regulations? - EBITDA for the generation segment is expected to improve by at least 15% next year due to new regulations [34][35] Question: What is the forecast for CapEx and leverage in 2026? - CapEx for 2026 is expected to be around $1 billion-$1.1 billion, with a stable net leverage ratio around 1.1-1.3 times [36][39] Question: What is the current state of the payment days in gas from Narsa? - Payment delays have improved significantly, now averaging around 20 days [115][116]