Market Overview & Crypto Crash Analysis - Crypto market experienced a significant liquidation event, estimated at least $19 billion, possibly four times larger, marking the largest since 2021 [1][2] - The crash was triggered by cascading liquidations due to high leverage in perpetual trading, with collateral values dropping and initiating a cascade effect [2][9] - Initial market downturn was linked to a potential misunderstanding regarding tariffs between the USA and China, causing a $25 trillion loss in the S&P 500 market cap [4][7] - Crypto market added $500 billion following clarification on China-Trump statements, suggesting a market correction based on macro events rather than fundamental changes [4][8] Exchange Dynamics & Stablecoin De-pegging - A stablecoin, USDE (Athena's stable coin), experienced a de-pegging incident primarily on Binance, affecting altcoins with liquidity pairs and impacting the broader market [10][11] - Binance covered $283 million in user losses after the token de-pegged, but the de-pegging event rippled to other exchanges [12][13] - The de-pegging on Binance was potentially exacerbated by unstable APIs and oracle issues, hindering liquidity provision during the liquidation event [14][15] - Allegations arose suggesting Binance may have orchestrated the de-pegging to target competitor Hyperliquid, though this remains unproven [12][16][19] Institutional Involvement & Future Outlook - Despite market volatility, fundamentals remain strong, with JP Morgan confirming plans to allow clients to trade Bitcoin and crypto next year [21][22] - Custody of crypto assets is a key topic, with firms exploring custody solutions to accommodate new users and capital pools [22][25]

Market Strategy & Execution - The firm successfully executed a strategy outlined in a previous report (Sunday Report), involving taking profits on short positions and re-entering the market at maximum lows [1] - The firm closed all remaining short positions with significant profits [1] - The firm identifies market manipulation and open-interest destruction as key factors leading to strong upside reversals [2] - The firm emphasizes the importance of adapting to market conditions, being bullish when appropriate, bearish at opportune times, and returning to bullish positions after market events [2] Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - The firm believes that a 90k target for Bitcoin is no longer necessary due to a massive liquidation event [2] - The firm notes that 99% of altcoin long positions were wiped out due to market manipulation [2] - The firm identifies specific cryptocurrencies of interest: BTC, ETH, SUI, XRP, HYPE, ONDO [1]

$19b liquidation cascade dropped open interest from $67b to $48b. bitcoin holding $61k ethereum at $2.4k. if open interest crosses $55b within 7 days traders are re-leveraging too fast another cascade coming. slow rebuild over 2-3 weeks means spot accumulation drives the next leg. leverage resets create 2-4 week windows where spot buying moves price 3x normal impact. whales added 12,400 btc in 48 hours post-flush ...

Market Overview - Crypto market experienced a brutal sell-off, wiping out weeks of gains [1] - A catastrophic liquidation cascade occurred, with over $17 billion in leveraged positions forcibly closed in a single 24-hour period, $16 billion of which were long positions [5] - Triple witching crypto options expiry, with over $175 billion in Bitcoin options and $55 billion in ETH options matured, contributed to immense volatility [6] - Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break the $118 thousand resistance level, signaling exhaustion to traders [7] - September has historically been a brutal month for crypto, with BTC posting negative returns in eight of the last 12 Septembers, averaging a monthly loss of 377% [10] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points [7] - Fed Chair Jerome Pal's hawkish tone, framing the rate cut as a "risk management cut," led to a sell the news reaction [8] - The Fed's dot plot still shows a median projection of two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of 2025 [18] Q4 Outlook - The bull case for a strong Q4 is built on the institutional tsunami, the Fed's liquidity pipeline, and historical momentum [15] - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have global assets under management hitting $1795 billion by mid 2025 [16] - Bloomberg analysts are giving spot ETFs for assets like Salana, XRP, and Litecoin a 75 to 90% chance of approval before the end of the year [16] - October has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, with an average return of nearly 23% [19] Risks - The market remains overleveraged [21] - Lingering recession fears and weak global economic data could create a risk-off environment [22] - For Bitcoin, the zone between $14 thousand and $17 thousand is a critical support level [22]

RT Tyler Tarsi (@ttarsi_)perps 101perps are 90%+ of crypto volume today, they run the market. critical to understand, but most people working in crypto don't actually understand how they work.did a few sessions this week internally breaking them down. here's the tldr - not a guide, just my stream of consciousness notes.start with order books - they're universal, not specific to perps. bids = buy orders, asks = sell orders. difference between best ask and best bid is the "spread"there is no true singular "pr ...

eth shorts built $1.3b positions into the tightest supply since 2016. otc desks have nothing.etfs inhale everything.$27b waits to deploy. exchanges down to 12% reserves.$5k triggers the liquidation cascade. no inventory to absorb it.crypto's first real squeeze plays out with zero escape routes available ...