At this stage of the cycle, rising leverage or open interest, for that matter, not only increases trader risk. It also raises balance-sheet and liquidity pressure on exchanges, which must ensure they can process liquidations, withdrawals, and margin calls smoothly during sudden volatility.At the same time, exchange inflows fell from around 68,000 BTC to near 26,000 BTC. Holders were not selling into strength. Instead, supply stayed off exchanges while leveraged exposure increased.“Positions are built and un ...

Market Analysis - The previous Bitcoin price prediction of $90,000 was based on an expected liquidation cascade in altcoins, which has already occurred [1] - The need for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 to trigger altcoin liquidations is now diminished due to the historic altcoin liquidations already observed [1] - The industry needs to re-evaluate positions and strategies in light of recent market events [1] Trading Activity - 25% of profits from a Bitcoin short position have been realized [1] - 50% of profits from RSR and AVAX short positions have been realized [1] - Buy orders for certain altcoins have been triggered [1] - The strategy is to primarily hold cash and maintain a Bitcoin short position [1] - The current portfolio consists of a mix of existing positions and new short positions [1] - The industry emphasizes the importance of patience in executing new strategic orders [1]

Market Trends - Prices are finally increasing [1] - Perpetual DEXes (Perps DEX) are becoming a dominant trend [1] - The market is experiencing increased greed among participants [1] Trading Strategy & Risks - A strategy involves farming all Perps DEXes by simultaneously leveraging positions [1] - A potential "fomo trade of the year" is being promoted, possibly by CZ [1] - The "house" (market makers or institutions) may dump assets [1] - Liquidation cascades could occur [1] - Traders may face potential financial ruin [1]

Market Overview - The market is currently in a trapped state, indicating potential instability [1] - A significant liquidation cascade has begun, impacting numerous altcoin positions [1] - The anticipated impact on altcoins is expected to be substantial [1]

Risk Factors - Liquidation cascade triggered by 647 penguins defaulting [1] - 990% APY refinancing trap indicates unsustainable lending practices [1] - $6.5 million forced transfers suggest potential market manipulation or security breaches [1] - Blur lending concentration poses systemic risk [1] Market Indicators - Token pumping at $1.9 billion valuation raises concerns about market bubble [1] - NFTs dying at 10 ETH floor price reflects declining market interest [1] - Perfect decoupling trade strategy observed [1] Nansen Analysis - Zero Nansen pioneer positions suggest lack of confidence from leading investors [1]

Market Dynamics & Risk Assessment - A single large sell order of 100,000 units triggered a liquidation cascade on @quanto, causing IMF's value to plummet from $30 million to $5 million within an hour [1] - The rapid price decline prevented the protocol from liquidating IMF tokens at their loan values, resulting in USDS lenders losing approximately $600,000 [1] - This loss represented a 1% haircut to USDS lenders, as total USDS deposits on the platform amounted to around $60 million [1] - A similar cascade on coins with loans of $10+ million could have had more significant consequences, but is less likely due to higher liquidity [1] - Lending USDS on IMF exposes lenders to the aggregate risk of all borrowable coins on the platform, rather than the isolated risk of a single coin [1] - While this approach mitigates the risk of total loss from a single pool, it introduces contagion risk across the platform [1] IMF Recovery & Trading - IMF has shown strong recovery, increasing 4x from its lowest point after the cascade [1] - IMF is listed on @quanto with 10x leverage for trading [1] - Users can deposit IMF and use it to trade IMF [1]