Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced a decline of approximately 1.7%, indicating a negative market sentiment, particularly affecting AI-related stocks like Oracle and CoreWeave, which have seen significant losses recently [1][4] - The widening of credit default swaps for these companies suggests increasing market skepticism regarding the AI trade [1] AI-Related Stocks - SoftBank, previously rising alongside implied volatility, has also seen a notable pullback, although it remains substantially up compared to earlier levels [3] - The trend indicates a potential unwinding of the AI-related trade, possibly reverting to pre-earnings conditions focused on equity and volatility dispersion trades [4] Liquidity Conditions - The average repo rate was around 4%, indicating tight liquidity conditions, which are not expected to ease significantly in the near term [6] - Upcoming Treasury settlements amounting to approximately $60 billion next week will likely maintain tight liquidity, regardless of any reductions in the Treasury General Account (TGA) [8][21] Treasury Settlements - Specific settlement amounts include $26.7 billion on the 17th, $14 billion on the 18th, and $18 billion on the 20th, contributing to ongoing liquidity constraints [8] - Reserve balances remain low at around $2.88 trillion, limiting the potential for significant liquidity increases even if the TGA is reduced [21]

Market Trends & Dynamics - CME (芝商所) 现在提供 24/7 全天候交易，这可能会消除 CME 缺口 [1] - 机构投资者正在进入加密货币领域，这与之前的周期非常不同 [2] - Coinbase 对第四季度持乐观态度 [3] Regulatory & Macroeconomic Factors - 行业认为加密货币牛市仍有上涨空间，但对 10 月 10 日的事件后更加谨慎 [3] - 行业仍然看到有弹性的流动性条件、强大的宏观背景和支持性的监管动态 [3]

Our long stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserves conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision. Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates, along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates.The committee's plans lay out a deliberat ...