Key Points China's Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin forecasts 30% to 40% demand growth for lithium in 2026. Prices of the battery metal could more than double on demand growth. Standard Lithium doesn't actually produce lithium... yet. 10 stocks we like better than Standard Lithium › Standard Lithium (NYSEMKT: SLI) stock, a lithium mining start-up with zero profit, and zero revenue, exploded 13.5% higher this morning on some positive news for the lithium industry out of China. As Reuters ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The lithium market is experiencing volatility due to potential supply disruptions from lepidolite mine suspensions and a stronger-than-expected battery production pipeline [1][2] - A demand-driven landscape is emerging, with expectations of a price and margin recovery in battery materials extending into 2026-27 [1] Key Insights - **Demand Growth Forecast**: Battery demand is projected to grow by 31% YoY in 2026, with Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Electric Vehicle (EV) demand expected to increase by 45% YoY and 26% YoY, respectively [2][9] - **Destocking Trends**: Lithium destocking is estimated at ~15,000 tons during November 2025, with expectations that this trend will continue, favoring average selling price (ASP) increases and margin recovery in the lithium sector [3][19] - **Price Projections**: Forecasts for lithium prices (including VAT) are set at Rmb85,000/ton and US$890/ton during FY26 [3] Company-Specific Updates Ganfeng Lithium - **Rating Upgrade**: Ganfeng Lithium's stock rating has been upgraded to Buy, with a target price of Rmb85.51, reflecting a strong outlook due to robust battery demand and improving cost competitiveness from low-cost upstream resources [4][26][28] - **Financial Model Update**: FY25 EPS has been revised down by 16%, while FY26-27 EPS is revised up by 17% and 20%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [27][34] Tianqi Lithium - **Rating Upgrade**: Tianqi Lithium's stock rating has also been upgraded to Buy, with a target price of Rmb71.69, supported by anticipated ASP and margin recovery due to strong battery demand [37][39] - **Financial Model Update**: FY25 EPS has been revised down by 29%, while FY26-27 EPS is revised up by 2% and 14%, respectively, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook [38][45] Market Dynamics - **Supply Concerns**: The JXW mine's suspension has led to a decrease in lithium carbonate supply, but the resumption of operations is not expected to significantly alter the current destocking pattern [22][23] - **Backward Integration**: Battery manufacturers are increasingly integrating backward into lithium supply chains, indicating a potential upcycle in the lithium market [25] Additional Considerations - **Economic Factors**: The improving economics of ESS, particularly in China, are expected to support demand growth, with ESS projected to account for ~30% of total battery demand by 2030 [9][11] - **Investor Sentiment**: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of ESS demand growth, but industry checks suggest robust demand is likely to continue, driven by significant capacity expansions from major battery manufacturers [16][17] Conclusion - The lithium market is poised for recovery, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, particularly in ESS and EVs. Both Ganfeng and Tianqi Lithium are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with upgraded ratings reflecting positive market sentiment and financial outlooks.