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中国电池材料(锂)-历经 5 个月去库存后,锂重回备货状态-China Battery Materials Lithium into 1st week of Jan - lithium shifts back to stockpiling after 5M destocking
2026-01-09 05:13
Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the lithium battery materials industry, particularly lithium supply and demand dynamics as of January 2026 - Notable trends include a shift from destocking to stockpiling of lithium inventories after a five-month period of destocking [1] Key Points Lithium Inventory and Pricing - Lithium inventory has begun stockpiling, with downstream cathode makers showing resistance to rising lithium prices - Current inventory levels for downstream cathode makers have declined to approximately 36.5k tons, the lowest since March 2025, while monthly output of cathodes is about 38% higher than that time [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of lithium is expected to remain high due to supply-side concerns [1] Supply-Side Concerns - Potential delays in the resumption of JXW's mine operations due to tailing capacity issues - Geopolitical risks in Mali may impact local production and shipment of lithium [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has a spodumene capacity of approximately 500ktpa at Goulamina, while Hainan Mining has a capacity of 100ktpa at Bougouni [1] Demand Projections - An upward revision in cathode production is anticipated for January, contrasting with a previous expectation of a 10% month-over-month decline - Settlements on processing fee negotiations between major lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode makers and battery manufacturers are contributing to this demand increase [1] Additional Insights - The report indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, with supply constraints and geopolitical factors playing a crucial role in shaping the lithium market landscape [1] - The analysis suggests that the lithium market is entering an exciting phase as it adapts to these changes, with potential implications for pricing and production strategies in the coming months [1]