Long - term Cash Generation
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Seth Klarman: Positioning His Portfolio for 2026
Acquirersmultipleยท 2026-01-04 23:43
Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]