Long - term care demand growth
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American Healthcare REIT(AHR) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 19:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported same-store NOI growth of 16.4% across the total portfolio, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit same-store NOI growth [7] - Normalized funds from operation (NFFO) reached $0.44 per fully diluted share in Q3, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [22] - The company increased its full-year 2025 NFFO guidance to a range of $1.69-$1.72 per fully diluted share, implying growth in excess of 20% year-over-year at the midpoint [23] - Net debt to EBITDA improved to 3.5 times, representing a 0.2-time improvement from the previous quarter and a 1.6-time improvement from Q3 2024 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Within the Trilogy segment, same-store NOI grew 21.7% year-over-year, with occupancy averaging 90.2% in Q3, up more than 270 basis points from last year [12] - The shop segment reported same-store NOI growth of 25.3%, with revPOR up 5.6% year-over-year and NOI margins expanding nearly 300 basis points to 21.5% [14] - The integrated senior health campuses segment increased its same-store NOI growth guidance to a range of 17%-20% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Medicare Advantage accounted for 7.2% of total resident days at Trilogy during Q3, up from 5.8% a year ago, indicating a shift towards higher reimbursement sources [13] - Construction starts across senior housing remain near historic lows, while demographic growth in the 80-plus cohort accelerates, supporting a multi-year runway for further occupancy gains [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building durable long-term growth through operating alignment with best-in-class regional operators and disciplined capital allocation [10] - The company has closed over $575 million in acquisitions year-to-date, with a pipeline of awarded deals standing at well over $450 million [9][20] - The inaugural corporate responsibility report was published, reflecting the company's commitment to governance, social, and sustainability priorities [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current operating environment for long-term care, citing strong demand tailwinds and the quality of their portfolio [8] - The company expects to maintain occupancy gains achieved through the busy spring and summer selling season, despite entering a historically slower winter season [12] - Management anticipates continued pricing power, expecting to price at a rate higher than inflation [31] Other Important Information - The company executed $13 million of non-core dispositions, concentrating capital within its operating portfolio [19] - The development pipeline consists of projects with a total expected cost of roughly $177 million, with approximately $52 million spent to date [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the maximum occupancy upside from 90%? - Management indicated that the maximum upside from 90% to 100% is 10%, but future occupancy trends will depend on supply-demand fundamentals [29] Question: Can you discuss the competitive environment for acquisitions? - Management noted that while there are more assets coming to market, the competitive landscape remains manageable, with many deals being off-market [33][34] Question: What is the strategy regarding the MOB portfolio? - The company has been divesting MOBs, focusing on growing the RIDEA side of the business, and expects to continue redirecting cash into senior housing [70] Question: How is Trilogy leveraging its revenue management system? - Trilogy is utilizing its revenue management system to optimize operations and is in pilot phases with other operators to extend this tool [53] Question: What is the acquisition strategy moving forward? - The company is targeting a mix of independent living, assisted living, and memory care, focusing on quality buildings that will provide good earnings growth [90]