Market Correction & Historical Context - 行业分析指出，在比特币牛市期间，25%-30% 的回调非常常见，而当前最大回调幅度为 19.6%，即使回调至 88,000 美元也并非前所未有 [1] - 行业观察到 10 月 10 日的清算事件后，比特币和山寨币的价格走势是未见顶的有力证据，尽管当时约 400 亿美元的加密货币被清算 [1] - 行业历史数据显示，即使股票和黄金价格上涨，加密货币停滞甚至下跌的情况也曾发生，但之后比特币的表现通常会超过这些资产 [2] Uncorrelated Market & Bull Market Indicators - 行业分析认为，加密货币与更广泛的金融市场不相关，即使黄金和股票创下新高，比特币也表现出疲软 [1] - Coinglass 的 30 个“牛市峰值指标”均未达到，表明当前仍处于积累比特币和高潜力山寨币的阶段 [2]

Market Trend & Potential Risk - A drop below $4,072 could trigger $2.36 billion in $ETH long liquidations [1] - A move above $4,499 may liquidate $1.82 billion in shorts [1]

Crypto Market Rally Drivers - Short squeezes, driven by traders betting against price increases, can push crypto prices higher unexpectedly, especially short-term [4] - Long liquidations, the reverse of short squeezes, occur when traders betting on price increases are forced to sell, driving prices down [5] - Monitoring short squeeze liquidations on platforms like Coin Glass can indicate if a rally is leverage-driven [6] - Genuine rallies break through resistance levels, while false rallies are rejected [8] - Whales may intentionally trigger short squeezes to create FOMO and liquidate short positions [10] Macro and Crypto Conditions - Bullish macro conditions are indicated by rising major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (Rut) [14][15] - Lower 10-year Treasury yields are bullish, while higher yields are bearish [17] - A falling US dollar (DXY) indicates increased global liquidity, which is generally positive for crypto, with a few months lag [18][19] - Bitcoin (BTC) uptrends are a simple proxy for bullish crypto conditions [22] - Ethereum (ETH) uptrends, especially relative to BTC (ETH/BTC chart), indicate increasing risk appetite among crypto investors and potential capital rotation into altcoins [23][24][25] Rally Sustainability and Rotation - The more spot crypto ETFs get approved, the easier it is for macro liquidity to find its way into the crypto market [30] - Overextended long leverage makes the market vulnerable to dips and whale-triggered liquidations [28] - Bearish macro or crypto catalysts can trigger long liquidations and end rallies [29] - Capital rotation between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is often leverage-driven, restricting supply and amplifying price movements [41][42][43][44] - Liquidity can move freely between different crypto niches resulting in a sort of rolling rotation rather than a sequential rotation [46][47][48]