Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market cycle typically follows a 4-year pattern, with 1-2 years of bull market and 2-3 years of bear market [4] - The crypto market is nearing the end of the bull phase, with Bitcoin having realized most of its gains and capital rotating into large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana [4][12] - History suggests it may be prudent to start taking profits on Bitcoin, while it might be early to take profits or cut losses on altcoins, depending on individual circumstances [5] Profit-Taking and Loss-Cutting Strategies - Taking profits or cutting losses depends on personal circumstances, including time horizon, wealth level, risk tolerance, and tax jurisdiction [6] - It's unlikely to sell all crypto at the perfect time, so consider whether being early or late is easier to manage [14] - For altcoins, identify key resistance levels using the Bollinger Band indicator on the monthly chart to determine potential profit-taking points [22][23][24] - Partial profit-taking at different resistance levels can mitigate the risk of selling too early [30][31] - The same methodology used for taking profits can be applied to cutting losses, especially if the altcoin has a good chance of recovery [36][37] Risk Management and Capital Allocation - Be cautious about rotating capital into other cryptos or asset classes after taking profits, as there's often overlap between crypto and macro market cycles [41] - Stablecoins and tokenized gold carry counterparty risk, which can be amplified during bear markets [42][43] - Consider holding assets with zero counterparty risk, like Bitcoin or gold, for long-term value preservation [45][46]