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Forestar (FOR) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-28 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fourth quarter, net income increased by 7% to $87 million or $1.7 per diluted share [7] - For the full year, net income totaled $167.9 million or $3.29 per diluted share [8] - Revenues for the fourth quarter increased by 22% to $670.5 million, while annual revenues grew by 10% to $1.7 billion [8][4] - Book value per share increased by 11% to $34.78, reflecting a 92% increase over the last five years [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fourth quarter, the company sold 4,891 lots with an average sales price of $115,700, while for the year, 14,240 lots were sold at an average price of $108,400 [8] - The gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 22.3%, down 160 basis points from the previous year [9] - The pretax income for the fourth quarter increased by 4% to $113.1 million, with a pretax profit margin of 16.9% [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted slower new home sales due to affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, but builder incentives are helping to bridge the affordability gap [12] - The availability of contractors and materials remains solid, with stable land development costs [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue executing its strategic plan by investing for future growth, maximizing returns, and consolidating market share in the lot development industry [6] - Forestar aims to maintain a minimum 15% pretax return on average inventory and a return of initial cash investment within 36 months [15] - The company expects to invest approximately $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2026 [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in long-term demand for finished lots despite near-term headwinds from home affordability constraints [21] - The company anticipates delivering between 14,000 to 15,000 lots and generating $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $968 million in liquidity, including $379 million in unrestricted cash [17] - Total debt was $803 million with no senior note maturities until fiscal 2028, resulting in a net debt to capital ratio of 19.3% [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is growth expected to be in line with Horton? - Management indicated that growth is tied to the size of Horton and their market entry, with the potential for mid-single-digit growth depending on market conditions [25] Question: What is the outlook for headcount and SG&A leverage? - The company expects headcount to remain flat or slightly decrease in fiscal 2026, following a significant increase in fiscal 2025 [26] Question: Are there any pushbacks on lot prices or extended takedown schedules? - Management confirmed successful renegotiation of terms but noted minimal pushback on lot pricing, managing it project by project [29] Question: What trends are observed in Texas and Florida? - Management noted some pressure in Texas and Florida markets but still sees good absorption at affordable price points [32] Question: What is the expected cadence of deliveries in 2026? - The company projects a similar delivery cadence to 2025, with larger deliveries expected in the second half of the year [33]