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中国可再生能源:新政策或推动太阳能玻璃行业整合;看好储能及多晶硅制造商-China Renewable Energy-New Policy Likely to Facilitate Solar Glass Consolidation; We Like ESS & Polysilicon Makers
2025-09-26 02:32
Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, particularly the solar energy market, including solar glass, polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and modules. Key Points and Arguments Policy Developments - The **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** and other Chinese administrations issued a new policy titled "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at promoting low carbon and digitalization in the construction materials industry. This policy is expected to facilitate the consolidation of solar glass production by shifting focus from 'project management' to 'planning oriented', which may help eliminate inefficient production capacity [1][1][1]. Price Trends - **Midstream solar product prices** (wafer, solar cells, and solar glass) increased by **1-3% week-over-week (wow)**, while upstream polysilicon and downstream solar module prices remained stable [1][1][1]. - **Polysilicon prices** saw a slight increase of **0.2% wow**, averaging **Rmb52.3/kg** for n-type grade rod-type polysilicon, while granular silicon prices remained unchanged at **Rmb49.5/kg**. Polysilicon inventory at producer plants decreased by **6.8% wow** to **204k tonnes** [2][2][2]. - **Wafer prices** for n-type products rose by **1.5% wow** to **Rmb1.35/W** for 182mm products and **1.2% wow** to **Rmb1.70/W** for 210mm products. Total wafer inventory increased by **1.9% wow** to **16.9GW** [3][3][3]. - **Solar cell prices** increased by **2.5% wow** to **Rmb0.32/W** for TOPCon products, with expected output rising by **1.5% wow** to **60.0GW** in September [3][3][3]. - **Module prices** experienced a slight decline, with average prices for TOPCon modules decreasing by **0.6% wow** to **Rmb0.66/W** for utility-scale projects [4][4][4]. Demand and Production Insights - **Solar installation demand** in China remains muted due to tariff uncertainties, but module export demand has grown significantly, with a **41.9% year-over-year (yoy)** increase in module export volume to **26.6GW** in August [6][6][6]. - Monthly module output is expected to rise by **2.2% month-over-month (mom)** and **2.4% yoy** to **50.3GW** in September [6][6][6]. - **Solar glass prices** increased by **1.1% wow** to **Rmb13.5/m2** for 2.0mm products, while the inventory period decreased by **6.8% wow** to **15.0 days** [7][7][7]. Company Recommendations - The report expresses a favorable outlook on companies such as **Sungrow** and **Deye**, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage systems. Additionally, it recommends buying shares in upstream polysilicon makers like **GCL**, **Tongwei**, **Daqo**, and **TBEA** due to anticipated industry consolidation driven by anti-involution measures [1][1][1]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights the potential for increased capacity utilization among module companies to produce more with low-cost materials amid rising upstream solar product prices [6][6][6]. - The operational daily solar glass melting capacity remained unchanged at **89,290 tonnes**, but some companies plan to increase capacity due to improved profitability [7][7][7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Renewable Energy sector.