Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a "structurally fragile state," trading below key cost-basis levels and within a tight range, indicating a low-conviction consolidation phase in the market [1][3] - The market has been trading below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $104,600 since early October, reflecting a lack of liquidity and demand [2] - Recent trading has been confined to the $81,000–$89,000 range, reminiscent of the post-all-time-high (ATH) period in Q1 2022, which was characterized by weakening market conditions [2] Market Conditions - There is a notable increase in loss realization among investors, typical of a declining market that requires liquidity, with many exiting at a loss [3] - Although short-dated downside flows are diminishing, indicating a reduced probability of an extended drop, the market remains in a low-liquidity, low-conviction environment [3] - Sentiment has shifted from urgent protection to a more cautious stance, with concerns about a potential extended bearish trend into 2026 [3] Onchain Data Analysis - Onchain data indicates rising stress levels, with short-term holder loss ratios dropping to 0.07x, long-term holders reducing profit margins, and realized losses reaching early-cycle low levels [5]