Trend Identification and Momentum - The 200-day moving average is a key indicator for identifying momentum in crypto markets, with price above indicating bullish control and price below indicating bearish control [4] - A potential buying opportunity arises when a crypto asset, after being below the 200-day moving average for weeks or months, closes a full day above it, especially when accompanied by a fundamental catalyst like a product launch or user growth [5][7] - Stablecoin supply growth is a powerful indicator; expanding supply during a 200-day reclaim increases confidence in the move's sustainability [8] - It's crucial to ignore the 200-day moving average when fundamentals, such as significant supply unlocks or team departures, contradict the technical signals [9] Identifying Market Tops and Bottoms - The PI cycle top, a combination of the 111-day and 350-day moving averages on BTC, serves as an alarm for potential market tops when the fast line crosses above the slow line [17] - The MVRV z-score (zed score) uses on-chain data to determine if BTC is over or underpriced compared to the average cost basis of holders; a high score indicates unrealized profit and potential tops, while a low score suggests market bottoms [20][21] - The zed score's behavior may differ from previous cycles due to the influence of large buyers like ETFs and digital asset treasuries, which are re-anchoring supply at higher prices [24] - The zed score is expected to be more reliable as a bottom signal due to the potential for long liquidity wipeouts and liquidations of smaller crypto treasuries during a harsh bear market [27][29] Trading Sideways Markets - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is useful in sideways markets; look for bounces when price is near support and RSI is low (30-40 or lower), and exits when price is near resistance and RSI is high (60-70 or higher) [42] - Bollinger Bands, which expand with rising volatility and tighten when the market is calm, can be combined with RSI for trading sideways markets; sell when RSI is over 70 and price tags the upper band, and vice versa [44] Market Fundamentals - Ethereum funds saw inflows of nearly $4 billion, indicating a clear allocation preference from large buyers [34] - The total stablecoin market cap is above $280 billion, providing fresh capital for price action [34] - September will see $45 billion unlocked across the altcoin spectrum, so it's better to focus on tokens that don't have heavy unlock schedules in their immediate future [35]