Market Outlook for BONK - Expects BONK to reach new all-time highs (ATH) in Q3 2025 [2] - Projects BONK to achieve a $10 billion market capitalization by Q4 2025 [2] - Anticipates BONK could trade in the tens of billions of market capitalization by Q4 2025 or sometime in 2026 [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Believes macro catalysts will stimulate the economy and encourage risk-on behavior by late 2025/2026 [1] - Predicts rate cuts should have started [2] - Expects moves will start being made ahead of the mid-terms [2] - Notes favorable seasonality for the crypto markets [2] Investment Strategy - The initial BONK long position thesis outlined 2 years ago anticipated the main move to occur by late 2025 or sometime in 2026 [1] Memecoin Market Dynamics - Thinks BONK is uniquely positioned to capture a significant share of flows for memecoins [1]

Crypto Market Crash Causes - Crypto market crashes are often triggered by a combination of bearish macro and crypto catalysts [2] - Leverage in crypto trading amplifies both potential returns and losses, leading to liquidations that drive short-term price action [3][4][5] - Macro catalysts act as fuel, while crypto catalysts act as the spark that ignites market downturns [13] Macro Catalysts - Bearish macro catalysts include higher-than-expected inflation, lower-than-expected unemployment, and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates [19] - Geopolitical risks, especially potential conflicts involving China and Taiwan, pose significant threats to the crypto market due to uncertainty [25][27] - Fiscal policy, particularly government spending and rising deficits, is a primary driver of liquidity growth, overshadowing the impact of monetary policy [22][23][24] Crypto Catalysts - Temporary bearish crypto catalysts often mark cycle bottoms, while permanent bearish catalysts, such as insider token selling, can hinder project performance [34][37] - The shutdown of institutional crypto rails like Signature's Signet and Silvergate Sen networks in early 2023 contributed to the underperformance of altcoins [44][45] - Token unlocks don't always lead to price drops; panic selling by retail investors and lack of demand can be more significant factors [38][39][40][41][43]