Alts season can be amazing or devastating...First the tide doesn't lift all boats so asset allocation is crucial !Second, remember it usually happens in rolling pumps on different tokens. FOMO at these times will kill, conviction pays.What is conviction? Your token must outperform SOL, ETH and BTC to even matter, and it needs to have weekly charts that prove that. For me, SUI has a good chance and has outperformed this far. Your mileage may vary...Time horizon matters too. You WILL destroy your capital if y ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing challenges in achieving its 30% sales growth target for FY25E due to weaker-than-expected sales trends, particularly in online sales in the US and China, and rising import tariffs impacting gross profit margins [1][5][7] Sales Growth Outlook - Sales growth in 2Q25E is expected to be slow, with estimates indicating a mixture of 10% growth in the US and negative growth in China and Europe, influenced by a high base from previous years and changing consumer interests [2][4] - The company has not altered its guidance of 30%+ sales growth for FY25E, but revised forecasts now suggest a more conservative 14% growth, down from 23%, with expectations of single-digit growth in 1H25E and 20% growth in 2H25E [4][7] Market-Specific Insights - In the US market, sales growth is projected at 10%, primarily driven by offline expansion, while e-commerce sales may face sluggish growth due to industry factors [4] - The Chinese market shows weak demand for small appliances and cookware, with potential year-over-year declines in sales for Carote in 1H25E and FY25E [4] - The European market is not a major focus for the company, leading to potentially weaker-than-expected sales growth [4] Impact of Tariffs - Recent increases in US tariffs on steel- and aluminium-based products could significantly impact gross profit margins, with total tariffs on Carote's products potentially reaching 73.3% [5][6] - The company may pass on about 15% of the tariffs through supply chain adjustments but will still face a 35% burden, leading to a revised gross profit margin assumption of around 33% for the US market in FY25E [6] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The company has downgraded its rating to HOLD and cut the target price to HK$ 4.64, based on a 10x FY25E P/E, reflecting a 28% reduction in net profit forecasts for FY25E due to weaker demand and higher import tariffs [1][7]

Group 1 - The stock market appears complacent regarding long-term macro risks, including potential recessionary impacts from tariffs and signs of strain in the bond market [1] - Emphasis is placed on value stocks over growth stocks in the current market environment [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry trends [1]

Group 1 - The article presents a perspective that views current macroeconomic risks as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the S&P 500 and broader stock market [1] - It highlights concerns such as weaker consumer spending, potential issues in the bond market, and the threat of tariffs, which are largely being overlooked by the market [1] - The author, Gary Alexander, has extensive experience in technology sectors and has been involved with startups, providing insights into industry trends [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific company or stock recommendations, focusing instead on general market observations and personal insights from the author [2][3]