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摩根士丹利:印度-积极的政策势头强化了我们的建设性观点
摩根· 2025-06-16 03:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive view on India's economic prospects due to positive policy momentum [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - Recent policy efforts by the Indian government to reduce revenue expenditure, accelerate capital expenditure, and improve the business environment are encouraging and support investment growth while mitigating macroeconomic stability risks [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that India is well-positioned cyclically, with low trade exposure and strong domestic demand, which provides a buffer against trade tensions [7][9]. - The government's focus on attracting manufacturing investment and managing macroeconomic stability risks is expected to lead to a structural decline in interest rates, thereby enhancing investment rates [7][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The report highlights key recent policy advancements that reinforce confidence in India's medium-term growth outlook, including efforts to manage macroeconomic stability risks and promote manufacturing investment [4][8]. - The central government has reduced revenue expenditure to a six-year low of 22% of GDP, while the revenue deficit has decreased to a 17-year low of 1.7% of GDP [19][22]. Manufacturing Incentives - The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has shown positive results, particularly in sectors like electronics and automotive, with significant increases in exports and domestic production [29][31]. - The government plans to increase the budget allocation for the PLI scheme by 108% to INR 195 billion (approximately USD 2.3 billion) for the fiscal year 2026, focusing on key manufacturing sectors [34][37]. State Government Initiatives - State governments are taking proactive measures to lower business costs and enhance manufacturing capabilities, with initiatives like Maharashtra's "Viksit Maharashtra" aimed at significant economic growth by 2030 [38][39]. - The central government is incentivizing state-level reforms by linking financial support to progress in areas such as land and urban planning [39][40]. Economic Growth and Employment - India's economy is projected to grow at an average rate of 6.5% annually over the next decade, with a significant increase in the working-age population necessitating job creation [41][42]. - The report stresses the importance of achieving higher GDP growth rates to address employment challenges and maintain social stability [41][42].