Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, such as SPY and VOO, are expected to experience high volatility due to various catalysts including macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and earnings reports [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - Investors are likely to react strongly to upcoming macro data, which could influence market sentiment and trading behavior [1] - Geopolitical events are anticipated to add to the uncertainty in the market, potentially impacting investor confidence [1] - Earnings reports from key companies will also play a significant role in determining market direction and volatility [1]

Macro Environment - Global markets are experiencing growing macro clarity, with central banks adopting a dovish stance; nearly 90% of global central banks have either eased or held policy steady over the past year, while the Bank of England has cut rates [1] - In the U.S., macro data has softened significantly, with labor market figures showing underemployment rising and payroll growth appearing weak, particularly outside of healthcare and social assistance [2] - Inflation data in the U.S. has undershot expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target on a three-month annualized basis, reinforcing the case for continued rate cuts [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Despite improving macro conditions, Bitcoin prices have lagged, with a significant disconnect between Bitcoin's price and macro factors, indicating that the weakness is driven more by crypto-specific dynamics [3] - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in fear or extreme fear territory since early November, contributing to selling pressure from long-term holders and a slowdown in ETF inflows [4] - A rise in long positions on Bitfinex over the past two months suggests that positioning may be improving, despite the overall negative sentiment in the crypto market [4] Implications for the Future - The disconnect between macro conditions and Bitcoin pricing is notable, as traditional risk assets indicate easing financial conditions while crypto sentiment remains negative; this divergence could lead to significant regime shifts [5] - The resolution of this divergence, whether through higher crypto prices or prolonged consolidation, will be a key question as the market heads into the new year [5]

There is a 99% chance of a rate cut in September.Polymarket still has these odds at at 89%You are basically seeing an 11% gain, more or less a sure fire thing here, over 12 days.Fed Meeting is going to be the 17thMacro data is showing clear signs a cut is going to happen.Prediction Markets are lagging.When there's pennies in front of you, pick em up. ...