RT Galois Kevin (@Galois_Capital)LoL is like one long laning phase with high mechanical skill requirements for skill shots. DotA is more about macro strategy and both heroes and items are more unique and asymmetric. LoL requires higher APM with the exception of some DotA heroes like Meepo and Invoker while DotA requires more thinking. ...

June 16, 2025 11:41 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Consensus Views Not Always Sizeable Consensus Positions Feedback from our mid-year outlook suggests our directional views are commonplace among strategists and investors alike. In response, investors have taken a cautious approach to implementing them – sowing the seeds for disappointment as USD declines and the UST curve steepens further. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy G10 FX Strategy: USD Weakn ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a dovish outlook for G10 policy rates through 2026, suggesting a significant decline in rates, particularly in the US, where 10-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 and just above 3.00% by the end of 2026 [6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the US dollar is expected to weaken significantly, with the DXY forecasted to fall an additional 9% over the next 12 months to 91, driven by a convergence in US rates and growth to peers, alongside increased FX hedging flows [6][69]. - The report outlines a bearish outlook for global growth, particularly in the US, where real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, influenced by tariffs and immigration restrictions [15][23]. - Inflation is expected to moderate globally, with core PCE in the US forecasted to reach 4.5% before declining, while the euro area is projected to undershoot the ECB's inflation target due to sluggish growth [23][34]. Interest Rate Strategy - In the US, Treasury yields are expected to range trade through 3Q25 before declining, with a forecast of 10-year yields at 4.00% by the end of 2025 and a larger decline in 2026 as the Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points [3][27]. - The euro area is projected to see the 10-year Bund yield fall to 2.40% by 4Q25 and 2.20% by 4Q26, influenced by more ECB easing than currently priced in [3][35]. - In the UK, 10-year gilt yields are expected to end 2025 at 4.35% and 2026 at 3.80%, with the Bank Rate projected to decline further due to a slowdown in economic activity [41][43]. Currency & Foreign Exchange - The report forecasts continued weakness in the USD, with significant declines against safe-haven currencies such as EUR, JPY, and CHF, as the DXY is expected to fall to 91 by mid-2026 [8][69]. - Specific currency pairs are projected to move as follows: EUR/USD to rise to 1.25, GBP/USD to 1.45, and AUD/USD to 0.69 by mid-2026, reflecting various economic factors [8][69]. Inflation-Linked Bonds - In the US, breakevens are expected to remain elevated until 3Q25 due to tariff-induced inflation, with a tightening forecast around 2Q26 as inflationary pressures begin to cool [9]. Sovereign Supply Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in net coupon bond supply across the G7, amounting to US$2.72 trillion in 2025, down 5% year-over-year, influenced by fiscal policy uncertainties [53][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a HODL strategy may not yield significant alpha or maintain a high Sharpe ratio over the long term, suggesting that active management is essential for maximizing returns and minimizing opportunity costs [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company advocates for active management in investment strategies to achieve high positive returns, indicating that simply holding assets is insufficient for generating high alpha [1]. - It is highlighted that seeking high returns does not equate to generating high alpha, which is a critical distinction for investors [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a strong educational background with a degree in Business Economics from UCLA and a Master of Accounting from UMich Ross School of Business, indicating a solid foundation in financial analysis [1]. - The analyst's experience includes 10 years in investment banking and a current role as a senior analyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund, showcasing expertise in fundamental equity research and global macro strategy [1].

V i e w p o i n t | 15 May 2025 18:25:24 ET │ 22 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Answering Questions Now CITI'S TAKE On Monday, our attitude to the tariff news was "trade first, ask questions later" when it came to our portfolio. The left tail of US growth risks has been trimmed, so we paid US rates and reduced USD shorts. Now it's time to answer those questions. Markets feel stuck in an information gap, waiting for flows, fiscal, and trade updates. Trade War Subplots — Recent developmen ...

May 12, 2025 07:05 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Are You "Overweight" the USA? If investors outside the US sit overweight US assets in aggregate, then US investors must sit underweight. The home bias of US investors challenges the popular view that foreign investors indeed sit overweight the US. Regardless, allocation and hedge ratio adjustments should still weigh on USD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy US Rates Strategy: The Path to a 30% Bill S ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a HODL strategy may not yield significant alpha or maintain a high Sharpe ratio over the long term, suggesting that active management is essential for maximizing returns and minimizing opportunity costs [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company advocates for active management in investment strategies to achieve high positive returns, indicating that simply holding assets is insufficient for generating high alpha [1]. - It is highlighted that seeking high returns does not equate to generating high alpha, which is a critical distinction for investors [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a strong educational background with a degree in Business Economics from UCLA and a Master of Accounting from UMich Ross School of Business, indicating a solid foundation in financial analysis [1]. - The analyst's experience includes a role as a senior analyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund, showcasing expertise in fundamental equity research and global macro strategy [1].

April 14, 2025 08:18 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me Investors should prepare to be fooled many more times. Hold your convictions loosely and keep your stops tight. If a master plan exists – e.g., offset the negative economic impact of tariffs with fiscal and monetary easing – it's unlikely to work in the way the US administration envisions. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy Global FXEM Strategy: ...