Market Prediction - Industry analysts predict a potential Bitcoin (BTC) price surge to $96,000 within 5 days [1] - This prediction is based on the upcoming BTC options expiry on December 26, with a significant $938 billion open interest on Deribit [2] Options Market Dynamics - The majority of open interest is concentrated around the $96,000 level [3] - At this price point, a large number of options are expected to expire worthless, benefiting option sellers such as market makers and large desks [4][5] - Option sellers' hedging and positioning strategies may influence the price to move towards the $96,000 level as the expiry date approaches [6]

Market Event Analysis - A major cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, experienced API issues leading to market maker shutdowns and widespread liquidations [1] - Many market makers were unable to provide sufficient liquidity to support the market [1] - Exchanges with internal market makers or price backstopping capabilities absorbed significant liquidation volumes, particularly in small-cap and major cryptocurrencies [1] Liquidity and Risk Management - Entities that backstopped prices during the market disruption are now unwinding their positions, involving tens of billions in liquidity [2] - The unwinding process involves de-risking strategies, similar to program trading liquidations, to minimize market impact [3] - Current market illiquidity is amplifying the impact of de-risking activities [3] Year-End Considerations - Year-end audits and market liquidity constraints are driving the need to complete de-risking activities promptly [3]

monad's market makers hold 160m mon tokens with zero lockup. team and vcs locked for a year but mms can dump today. that's why mon trades at $250m market cap after raising $431m. you're not buying dips, you're providing exit liquidity for entities whose entire business model is converting those 160m tokens to usd. ...

Market Liquidity - Crypto market has been "limping" since October 10 due to large liquidations [1] - Market makers' balance sheets were severely damaged, weakening liquidity [1] - Market makers function as the "central banks" of the crypto ecosystem [1] - Shrinking market maker balance sheets trigger a multi-week deleveraging cycle [1] - Bitcoin and Ethereum react to risk earlier than equities under fragile liquidity conditions, becoming leading indicators [1]

Crypto Market Analysis - Crypto market has been struggling since October 10th due to a negative shock, resembling the stock market's situation on the same date [2][3] - Market makers in crypto, acting as a central bank, were crippled by a significant liquidation on October 10th, impacting liquidity [3][4] - The recent decline in crypto prices reflects this market maker impairment, with a recovery potentially taking 8 weeks, similar to the situation in 2022 [4][5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum are seen as leading indicators for equities due to the unwind and weakened liquidity [6] Liquidation Event Details - On October 6th or 7th, Bitcoin reached $125,000, later dropping to around $120,000, and is now at approximately $86,000 [7] - An automatic liquidation feature (ADL) was triggered on a specific exchange when a stable coin's price deviated from $1 to $0.65 due to liquidity issues [8] - This ADL resulted in the liquidation of almost 2 million crypto accounts, even those that were previously profitable [9] - The error was essentially a code bug, as the pricing for the stable coin should have been pulled from across exchanges rather than relying on internal quotes [10] Regulatory and Risk Perspective - The ADL code and the way prices are pulled will likely be revised to prevent recurrence [13] - Investors should avoid excessive leverage in crypto due to the inherent risks associated with DeFi and potential code errors [14]

monad gave 140m tokens to market makers on 30-day loans. only wintermute locked for a year. december 24 when cyantarb galaxy gsr and auros can dump creates the obvious entry. ico buyers at $0.025 celebrating their 2x at launch become exit liquidity for the mm unlock a month later ...

Market Manipulation - Crypto market is potentially experiencing price manipulation by centralized exchanges (CEXs) and market makers [1]

Market Dynamics - Market makers were implementing their own liquidity strategies [1] - Operations are expected to return to normal [1]

Market Dynamics - Wintermute and other market makers stopped trading during Bitcoin crash [1] - $19 billion liquidation occurred during the Bitcoin crash [1]

Market Volatility - Market makers withdrew, indicating significant instability [1] - Spreads widened to 22%, reflecting widespread panic in order books [1]