Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, indicates that 2026 may present significant forecasting challenges for bitcoin, despite a bullish long-term outlook from the firm [1][2]. Market Conditions - The broader crypto market is currently in a bear phase, with bitcoin struggling to regain sustained bullish momentum. A decisive trading range above $100,000 to $105,000 is necessary to mitigate downside risks [3]. - Bitcoin options pricing reflects uncertainty, with traders assigning similar probabilities to prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and near $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end [4][5]. Structural Changes - There are signs of structural maturity in the bitcoin market, as long-term volatility has been declining. This change is attributed to the rise of institutional strategies like options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which help stabilize extreme price fluctuations [6]. - The volatility smile of bitcoin options indicates that downside protection is now more expensive than upside exposure, a trend typically seen in mature macro assets rather than high-growth markets [7]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the potential for a range-bound or "boring" 2026, this does not undermine the long-term case for bitcoin. Institutional adoption and market maturation are expected to continue, regardless of short-term price movements [8].