US-China Trade Deal Impact - The US-China trade deal is potentially a game changer, with a profound impact on investor sentiment, though the specifics and probability of a deal remain uncertain [1][3] - Market optimism has been present for the last 36 months, partly fueled by the possibility of positive actions by President Trump on the world stage [2][3] - The market has already priced in some developments, but the exact percentage attributable to the trade deal is unknown [2] - The optics of the US-China trade deal are positive, potentially giving the rally another leg up, but the substance of the deal is more important [16] Investment Strategy - Oaktree is a bottom-up, credit-focused investor, prioritizing a company's ability to repay its debts and promised interest [5] - Investment decisions are not based on macro factors like trade relations or Federal Reserve rate decisions [4][5] - The firm does not invest in companies like Open Air that are not currently profitable and cannot borrow money [18] Geopolitical Developments - The meeting between US and Chinese leaders in Korea marks their first encounter since 2019 [7] - Trade war 2.0 is different from trade war 1.0, with China having more leverage through negotiating tools like soybeans and rare earths [8] - President Trump acknowledges Xi Jinping as a tough negotiator and indicates the potential for a trade deal [11]

It’s almost time for UptoberJohnny (@CryptoGodJohn):I’m optimistic that October is going to be a good month for the market and that 2-3 weeks from now you will have wished you were allocating into the market ...