Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the macroeconomic outlook for Asia excluding Japan, with insights gathered from seminars held in Singapore and Hong Kong in December 2025 [2][4]. Economic Outlook - **US Monetary Policy**: A majority of respondents (64% in Singapore and 69% in Hong Kong) expect 2-3 Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2026, which is lower than the market's pricing of approximately 90 basis points [5][6]. - **China PPI Inflation**: About 91% of respondents anticipate that China's Producer Price Index (PPI) will remain in deflation in 2026, with expectations of improvement to between -1.0% and -2.0% from -2.8% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025 [5][8]. - **Japan's Monetary Policy**: Nearly all respondents believe that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) hiking cycle is not over, with a plurality expecting 1-2 more hikes to a terminal rate of 0.75-1.00% [5][12]. - **India's Monetary Policy**: Views are mixed; 49% in Singapore think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has completed its easing cycle, while 43% in Hong Kong expect at least two more rate cuts [5][13]. - **Bank of Korea (BOK) Outlook**: A majority (58% in Singapore and 61% in Hong Kong) agree that the BOK will maintain an extended hold through the end of 2026 [5][16]. - **ASEAN Growth from China Transshipments**: 74% of Hong Kong respondents and 35% of Singapore respondents believe Vietnam will benefit the most from China's transshipment of US-destined exports, despite narrowing tariff gaps [5][22]. Market Strategy - **FX Expectations**: 57% of respondents expect the DXY to decrease in the next six months, with a notable divide between Singapore (57% expecting an increase) and Hong Kong (65% expecting a decrease) [21][26]. - **Rates Strategy**: Singapore swaps were the most favored (50%) among Singapore respondents, while Korea swaps were preferred by 44% of Hong Kong respondents [21][32]. - **Equity Market Performance**: 33% of respondents expect China/Hang Seng to be the best-performing equity market by Q1 2026, closely followed by Japan/TOPIX at 31% [21][33]. - **Credit Preferences**: Both Singapore and Hong Kong respondents showed a strong preference for Asian Additional Tier 1 (AT1) credits for H1 2026, with 44% and 33% respectively [21][36]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted differing regional perspectives, particularly in monetary policy expectations and market performance forecasts, indicating a complex economic landscape in Asia [5][21]. - The data reflects a cautious optimism among investors regarding potential rate cuts and economic recovery, particularly in China and Japan, while also recognizing the risks associated with inflation and monetary policy shifts [5][6][21].