25 July 2025 | 9:10AM HKT Nongfu Spring (9633.HK): 1H25 Preview: Expect DD% growth across categories with NPM expansion; Potentially brighter 2H25; Buy We look for Rmb25.4bn in sales and Rmb7.3n in reported net income in 1H25E, up 15%/17% yoy, with largely unchanged sales/c.4% higher NP vs. our prior forecasts, mainly driven by slightly better growth for Juice/Tea and mild NPM expansion to 28.7% (1H24: 28.1%). We expect 1H25E sales to mainly be driven by ongoing strong momentum in juice (up 18% yoy) and tea ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for the first quarter were $105.5 million, down from $115.5 million in the same quarter last year, primarily due to a 9.4% decline in comparable sales [37][38] - Gross margin rate decreased to 45.1% from 48.2% year-over-year, with a 280 basis point increase in occupancy costs and a 30 basis point decrease in merchandise margins [38] - EBITDA for the quarter was $100,000, a significant drop from $8.2 million in the first quarter of the previous year [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales decreased by 6.6% for physical stores and 16.2% for direct sales, with improvements noted in monthly performance [12][37] - The sales penetration of private label brands increased from 55% to 57%, indicating a shift towards lower-priced merchandise that generates higher margins [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with consumers tightening their spending, particularly on discretionary items [13] - Traffic to stores accounted for approximately 90% of the comparable sales decline, highlighting the need for improved brand awareness [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to stabilize its business and return to growth by focusing on customer engagement, cost control, and prudent capital investment [11] - New store openings are being paused to focus on stabilizing the core business, with plans to open four more stores later this year [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about gradual improvements in comparable sales, projecting a return to positive growth in the second half of the year [6] - The impact of tariffs is being closely monitored, with an estimated cost increase of less than $2 million for the year if current policies remain unchanged [7][8] Other Important Information - The company has launched several initiatives, including the Heroes Discount program and the FinExchange, aimed at enhancing customer engagement and driving sales [24][26] - The introduction of the FITMAP technology is expected to redefine the retail experience for big and tall consumers, with plans for further expansion [33][35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is there any update on the company's growth strategies? - Management reiterated their commitment to stabilizing the business and focusing on customer engagement and cost control, with plans for future growth once stability is achieved [11][21] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company is actively working with vendors to mitigate tariff impacts and has not yet implemented price increases, assessing market conditions carefully [7][8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $105.5 million, down from $115.5 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 9.4% decline in comparable sales, partially offset by new store sales [36] - Gross margin rate decreased to 45.1% from 48.2% in the previous year, driven by increased occupancy costs and markdown rates [37] - EBITDA for the quarter was $100,000, a significant drop from $8.2 million in Q1 2024, reflecting the impact of lower sales [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales decreased by 6.6% for physical stores and 16.2% for direct sales, with improvements noted in monthly performance [12] - The sales penetration of private label brands increased from 55% to 57%, indicating a shift towards lower-priced merchandise that generates higher margins [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed a decline in customer traffic, which accounted for approximately 90% of the comparable sales decline [20] - The impact of tariffs is estimated to add less than $2 million or approximately 40 basis points to costs for the year, with ongoing efforts to mitigate this impact [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus for 2025 is to stabilize the business and return to growth by enhancing customer engagement and controlling costs [11] - New store openings are planned to pause after reaching a total of 18 stores, allowing the company to focus on stabilizing core operations [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current economic environment is challenging, with consumers being cautious about discretionary spending [13] - There is optimism for gradual improvement in comparable sales throughout 2025, with expectations of returning to positive growth in the second half of the year [5] Other Important Information - The company has launched several initiatives, including the Heroes Discount program and the FinExchange, aimed at increasing customer engagement and driving sales [24][25] - The introduction of the FITMAP technology aims to enhance the shopping experience for big and tall consumers, with plans to expand its implementation [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for future sales growth? - Management expressed optimism for gradual improvement in comparable sales, expecting a return to positive growth in the second half of the year [5] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company is actively working with vendors to mitigate tariff impacts and has not yet implemented price increases [6][8]