Core Viewpoint - Galaxy has revised its end-of-year Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000 following a significant market downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 for the first time in six months [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is entering a "maturity era," characterized by institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility, leading to slower future gains [2]. - The recent trading price of Bitcoin is $103,923, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous day but down nearly 18% from its all-time high of $126,080 [3]. Market Challenges - A record $19 billion liquidation on October 10 has negatively impacted investor confidence and market liquidity [4]. - Other investment assets, such as gold and AI-related stocks, are becoming more attractive, diverting attention from Bitcoin [4]. - The interest in stablecoins has also shifted focus away from Bitcoin [4]. Policy Environment - Despite initial discussions about establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve under the Trump administration, there have been no purchases or significant government communication regarding this initiative [5]. Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors have shown apathy towards Bitcoin since 2021, with only temporary interest during last year's meme coin craze, which has not led to sustained belief in Bitcoin [6]. - Bitcoin treasury companies are expected to enter a second phase where they must find alternative revenue sources as Bitcoin price momentum slows [6]. Future Predictions - Predictors estimate a 64% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach $115,000 before hitting $85,000 [7]. - Despite current challenges, Galaxy's head of research remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, although it may take longer than anticipated to achieve significant price increases [7].