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名创优品-企业日:营收符合预期,人民币业务前景向好
2026-01-07 03:05
Summary of Miniso (MNSO) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Miniso (MNSO) - **Event**: APAC Consumer & Leisure Corp Day on January 6, 2026 Key Takeaways Sales Performance - **4Q Sales Growth**: Sales growth in 4Q is aligned with management's expectations, showing solid performance in major markets including China and the US [1][7] - **1Q26 Outlook**: Management maintains a positive outlook for 1Q26, supported by enhanced holiday operations and a relatively low sales base from the previous year [1][8] Product Strategy - **Diversified Product Offering**: Management believes that a diversified product range is a key advantage, allowing the company to capture various opportunities and mitigate risks [1][7] - **IP Products Performance**: Notable performance from in-house IPs such as Yoyo, Carrot Street, and Angry Aimee, with Angry Aimee generating RMB 400k in GMV within 10 days [1][11] Market Expansion - **US Market Strategy**: Management anticipates more store openings in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by improved operations and store performance [1][8] - **Local Sourcing Impact**: While a higher local sourcing mix is expected to negatively impact gross profit margin (GPM) year-over-year in the near term, management sees improvements in margins for locally procured products [1][11] Membership System - **Cashback Initiative**: In China, a cashback program on membership orders has shown satisfactory ROI and will be rolled out nationwide [1][12] - **US Membership Growth**: Progress in building the membership system in the US is reported to be satisfactory, with growth in new members and repeat purchases [1][12] Regional Insights - **Latin America**: Expected to deliver sequential growth improvement in 4Q, with management optimistic about future growth leveraging insights from the Chinese market [1][11] - **Europe and Southeast Asia**: Europe shows potential for growth due to limited store counts, while markets like Vietnam and Indonesia face challenges from a weak macro environment [1][11] Financial Projections - **12-Month Price Target**: Buy rating with a 12-month price target of $28 for ADR and HK$54 for H-share, reflecting an upside of 43.1% and 40.1% respectively [1][13] - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenue growth from RMB 16.99 billion in 2025 to RMB 28.64 billion by 2027 [1][14] Risks - **Key Risks Identified**: 1. Lower store productivity in China due to competition and product quality issues [1][13] 2. Uncertainty in same-store sales growth (SSSG) recovery and global store expansion [1][13] 3. Geopolitical risks and higher operational expenses [1][13] Additional Insights - **Store Network Strategy**: Focus on quality over quantity in store selection, particularly in the US market due to limited prime retail locations [1][11] - **Product Mix Adjustments**: Management emphasizes the need for positive gross profit contributions from product mix adjustments to better meet local demand [1][11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting Miniso's strategic initiatives, market outlook, and financial projections.