Core Insights - The microfinance sector is slowly recovering from two years of stress, with improvements in bad loans and collections, but profitability remains challenging and growth is slow due to uneven recovery across states and lenders [15] Company-Specific Insights - Bandhan Bank is experiencing steady improvement in its microfinance portfolio, with a 30-day-plus delinquency ratio of 3.8%, below the industry average of 5.1%, and 90-day-plus delinquencies improved to 2.04% compared to 3% for the sector [2] - Bandhan Bank is cautious in expanding its microfinance portfolio, focusing on reducing concentration risk and increasing secured loans, with its emerging entrepreneurs business portfolio contracting 13% annually to ₹51,730 crore [2][3] - The secured loan book at Bandhan Bank currently makes up about 55% of total advances, expected to rise to 57-58% over the next 18 months [3] - IDFC First Bank anticipates stabilization of stress in its microfinance portfolio within the next six months, with gross slippages in the MFI book falling 9% sequentially in the September quarter [4] - IDFC First Bank's MFI business declined 42% annually to ₹7,306 crore, impacting income, but is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year [5] Industry Trends - The microfinance sector has seen most large players shrink their books by 25-50% over the past two years, primarily through write-offs, which has been termed cautious deleveraging [7] - CreditAccess Grameen reported accelerated write-offs of ₹554 crore related to overdue loans, indicating a need to clean up legacy stress [6] - Policy reforms have capped the number of lenders per borrower and restricted total indebtedness, which has reduced over-leverage but also slowed fresh lending [8][9] - Analysts expect collection efficiency to improve as disbursements rise, but near-term pressure is expected to persist due to erratic monsoon patterns affecting rural borrowers [10] - The upcoming state elections in Bihar raise concerns over potential political interference and debt waivers, although Bandhan Bank does not foresee a repeat of past disruptions [12][13] - Overall, analysts predict that larger banks and MFIs will recover first, with a slow and gradual journey towards normalcy expected for the sector [14]