Group 1 - The core sentiment among Wall Street analysts is overwhelmingly bullish, with all surveyed analysts expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2026 higher than it started, contrasting with previous years where some firms had bearish forecasts [3][4] - Analysts predict a fourth consecutive year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, despite acknowledging potential rocky trends during mid-term election years [4] - Historical data indicates that mid-term election years have the worst performance in terms of intrayear drawdowns, averaging a decline of 18%, but stocks typically recover post-election [5][6] Group 2 - The average S&P 500 return in mid-term years since 1950 is 4.6%, significantly lower than the returns in pre-election years (17.2%) and presidential election years (8%) [6] - There have been six instances of 20% bear market drops during mid-term years, highlighting the volatility and risks associated with this period [7] - Despite the historical challenges, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the market's performance, indicating a strong consensus on bullish sentiment [7]

An eye-popping three-year run that added 78% to US equities isn’t deterring Wall Street’s persistently bullish prognosticators. But this year’s optimism comes with a dose of caution. “Adjust your sights slightly lower,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said by phone Friday. “It’s OK to remain a bull but spell it with a lower-case B because we’re also bumping up against a historically challenging mid-term election year.” Most Read from Bloomberg Strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expect ...