Group 1 - The core sentiment among Wall Street analysts is overwhelmingly bullish, with all surveyed analysts expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2026 higher than it started, contrasting with previous years where some firms had bearish forecasts [3][4] - Analysts predict a fourth consecutive year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, despite acknowledging potential rocky trends during mid-term election years [4] - Historical data indicates that mid-term election years have the worst performance in terms of intrayear drawdowns, averaging a decline of 18%, but stocks typically recover post-election [5][6] Group 2 - The average S&P 500 return in mid-term years since 1950 is 4.6%, significantly lower than the returns in pre-election years (17.2%) and presidential election years (8%) [6] - There have been six instances of 20% bear market drops during mid-term years, highlighting the volatility and risks associated with this period [7] - Despite the historical challenges, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the market's performance, indicating a strong consensus on bullish sentiment [7]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 is expected to advance 9.2% this year, which aligns with the average total return this century but is lower than the previous three years' gains of 24%, 23%, and 16% [1][2] - The average gain expected this year matches the historical average for performance in the fourth year after three consecutive double-digit rallies, although recent history shows declines followed such stretches in 2020 and 2015 [2] - The bullish outlook is based on expectations of economic growth in the first half of the year, driven by tax cuts, regulatory easing, and advancements in artificial intelligence [3] Group 2 - Concerns about high valuations, capital spending plans potentially impacting profits, and the increasing capital intensity of major tech companies contribute to a more cautious market stance [4] - The S&P 500 is projected to gain only 4% this year, with historical data indicating that mid-term election years typically see an average advance of just 3.8% [5] - A three-year stock market run like the recent one often precedes cyclical bear markets, raising concerns about emerging signals of a bear market, particularly regarding AI-linked stocks [6]